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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 15th, 2012–Feb 16th, 2012

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

South Rockies.

Confidence

Good

Weather Forecast

The general pattern of a dominating high pressure ridge with weak disturbances passing through continues. Thursday should see strong NW or W winds, and a few cm of snow late in the day. Friday should be sunny & warm in the afternoon, well below freezing overnight. Saturday another disturbance is expected with a few more cm of snow and freezing level around 1000m.

Avalanche Summary

Only small avalanches were observed, mostly loose snow in steep terrain (I'm guessing solar triggered) and small slabs lee of ridges (but these are likely a day or two old). Loose surface snow may be susceptible to sluffing on steep slopes but shouldn't be too destructive unless terrain traps are in the runout. Deep persistent slab avalanches remain possible with heavy triggers in shallow rocky snowpack areas on unsupported slopes.

Snowpack Summary

On sunny slopes (SE, S, or around toward W facing slopes) Wednesday's sun created a crust. On shady slopes a new layer of surface hoar formed overnight Tuesday. Also on shady slopes immediately below the surface (hoar) is 5 to 10 cm of recent snow sitting on a second surface hoar layer, which in turn sits on sugary facetted snow. One report showed the feathery crystals of surface hoar around 4 cm long. All the crusts and surface hoar will need watching once it snows. Below these upper layers a well settled and strong snowpack sits on weak basal facets and depth hoar, which seem to be fairly widespread throughout the region. This deep persistent weakness was recently activated by warm temperatures, but cooler temperatures have once again reduced the sensitivity to triggers. Highly unpredictable glide cracks are also opening up, primarily on slopes with smooth ground cover. These full-depth gaping 'crevasses' could release without warning or act as a significant terrain trap.

Problems

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.