Avalanche forecast

Kananaskis

Jan 20 – 21, 2016Alberta Parks
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Archived · expired 11 years ago

Avalanche danger

Fri
Sat
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

Winds and Temps are both expected to increase on Thursday so we can expect avalanche danger to also increase.  Precip amounts are uncertain as well as timing of the incoming storm so watch for danger to increase throughout the day.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–3
    New windslabs are building in Alpine areas and at treeline in the new snow.  The Jan 6th layer is down 20-30cm in general and with the new load is becoming more sensitive to human triggering

  • Loose Dry

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–3
    Loose dry facetlanches have the ability to run far and fast. 

Confidence

Moderate - Track of incoming weather systems is uncertain on Thursday

Weather Forecast

We can expect another 10cm of snow over the next few days but we can also expect the winds to increase into the strong range out of the SW.  With this rising winds and influx of new snow we can expect to slowly see the avalanche danger begin to increase.  Expect the snow to begin again late in the day on Thursday with the arrival of this latest frontal system.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches were observed today but conditions were obscured for the better part of the day.

Snowpack Summary

5-7cm of new snow fell across the region today with generally light winds.  This new snow is very low density and easily moveable by recent winds which have been generally light out of the SW but occasional periods of moderate winds have created some new windslabs at higher elevations.  The Jan 6th interface is now down 25-30cm throughout the region and as the load increases on this layer, the human triggerability of this layer will also increase.  Ridgelines, and gullied terrain in the Alpine will be areas to be cautious.  Any slab that initiates in the Alpine terrain will likely entrain the loose facets as it travels down slope and run quite far so use caution and dont underestimate the runout potential. 

Regions covered