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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 10th, 2017–Jan 11th, 2017

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Kananaskis.

Watch for fresh wind slabs in the Alpine. Ice climbers should also be cautious with overhead terrain as several loose dry avalanches were observed today in gully features.

Confidence

High -

Weather Forecast

A clearing trend is expected for the next few days. Temperatures are expected to moderate with a high of -14 °C expected Wednesday. Winds will be out of the N to NW in the light to moderate range. No precipitation is expected for the rest of the week.

Avalanche Summary

Several naturally triggered slabs up to size 2.5 in the Alpine on all aspects. The majority of these avalanches are associated with the recently formed wind slabs, but a few failed deeper on the Dec 18th interface. In addition numerous loose dry avalanches up to size 1.5 have occurred over the past 24hrs in steep Alpine terrain on all aspects.

Snowpack Summary

Another 10cm of new snow in the past 24hrs brings storm snow totals to near 20cm. Variable wind effect in the Alpine, with pockets of fresh wind slab immediately below ridge-crest. The Dec 18th interface is buried 40 to 70cm at Treeline and remains a concern for human triggering. The Nov crust is buried up to 100cm deep and is exhibiting facetting both above and below the crust. At lower elevations the snowpack is weak and unsupportive due to prolonged periods of facetting.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.