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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 18th, 2017–Feb 19th, 2017

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Kananaskis.

The snowpack is beginning to strengthen with the cooler temperatures but at treeline and above the weak facetted base is making us very conservative. 

Confidence

Moderate - Freezing levels are uncertain on Sunday

Weather Forecast

Temperatures on Sunday will average around -8C in Alpine terrain.  Winds will be light to moderate out of the SW and only a trace amount of new snow is expected.  Freezing levels are forecast to be around 1600m

Avalanche Summary

No new natural avalanche activity was observed over the past 24hrs.

Snowpack Summary

5-15cm of recent snow is now overlying a widespread temperature crust at lower elevations (up to 2000m) and up to 2400m on more solar aspects. As you climb into the alpine this new snow has been blown into thin (20-30cm) thick storm slabs. Field tests on Friday and Saturday were showing these new wind slabs to be unreactive to ski cutting but we werent willing to expose ourselves to larger slopes due to the weak faceteted basal layers down 100-120cm. Warm temps are helping to settle out the snowpack and strengthen it but this process takes time. We still have very little confidence in the stability of any large terrain feature and are continuing to limit our exposure to overhead terrain. Good skiing was being found in sheltered areas at TL and below.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.