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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 22nd, 2019–Mar 23rd, 2019

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Kootenay Boundary.

Even if they skies are cloudy you should avoid slopes that have wet mushy snow, especially at lower elevations with little overnight re-freeze. Check out this LINK to see how easy it is to trigger a loose wet avalanche.

Confidence

Moderate -

Weather Forecast

A change in the weather pattern is approaching. FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Ridgetop winds light from the West and freezing levels 1900 m. SATURDAY: Cloudy. Freezing levels 2000 m and alpine near temperatures near +1 degrees. Ridgetop wind light from the East.SUNDAY: Cloudy with scattered flurries 5-10 cm at upper elevations. Freezing levels 1600 m and alpine temperatures near -3. Ridgetop winds remain light from the northwest.MONDAY: Periods of snow up to 15 cm. Freezing levels 1900 m and alpine temperatures near -2. Ridgetop winds moderate from the southeast.

Avalanche Summary

Natural loose wet avalanche activity continued on Thursday up to size 1.5. Natural avalanche activity will likely taper off later in the weekend when temperatures and freezing levels start to drop.

Snowpack Summary

Currently, solar aspects are showing signs of melt by day and a freeze by night. Only the upper 10-20 cm is re-freezing into a solid crust which typically breaks down by noon. Most solar slopes at lower elevations are becoming isothermal. You can still find dry, wintery snow on North facing slopes above 2000m and variable wind effect remains. Two crusts exist in the upper snowpack and the bond of the overlying snow is most concerning. The first crust is down 20 to 30 cm and loose wet avalanches have slid on this interface. The deeper one down 60-95 cm has also produced easy shears in test profiles and is potentially just waiting for enough heat to penetrate, creating a cohesive slab that may avalanche, if it does? This will likely become less of a concern over time when temperatures drop to more seasonal norms.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.