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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 22nd, 2013–Dec 23rd, 2013

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Cariboos.

These danger ratings are based on forecasted snow amounts of 10 - 15 cm.  If actual amounts exceed 15 cm, the danger rating will be high in the Alpine and at Treeline.

Confidence

Poor - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain on Monday

Weather Forecast

Synopsis: The region will see a one/ two punch of warm then cold air Sunday night into Monday. The result is a rising freezing level and a small amount of snow for the Cariboos. Sunday Night: Dropping to around 800m overnight. Precip: 5/10mm - 10/15cm Monday: Freezing Level: 1100m Precip: Nil Wind: Mod, gusting Strong WTuesday: Freezing Level: 600m Precip: Nil Wind: Mod, W gusting Extreme.Wednesday: Freezing Level: 1100m Precip: Trace Wind: Mod, gusting Strong South

Avalanche Summary

Explosive control work Saturday produced a couple of avalanches to size 2.5 on upper elevation N through NE facing slopes that likely failed on the basal facets near the ground.

Snowpack Summary

Snowpack depths at Treeline are between 75 - 120cm. Alpine depths vary between 100 - 180cm. We're dealing with a complex snowpack in the Cariboo Mountains at this time. See this video for a great visual.The upper snowpack contains storm snow, wind slabs, surface hoar, and facets. Previously warm temps and as much as 85cm of new snow have combined to form a cohesive slab on top of the November 28 surface hoar and facets. Snowpack tests are showing Sudden Planar results on this layer with medium loads which indicates the potential for human triggering. There's not a whole lot of snow between riders and sugary snow (facets) near the base of the snowpack. In some places this crust facet combo is failing naturally. As a result you'll notice that there is a Persistent Slab problem on the front page. Human triggering of large destructive avalanches is possible at this time.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.