Low does not mean 'No'
Increasing winds from the North will increase the likelihood of Wind Slabs on the Southern 1/2. Watch for hollow sounding, denser snow near ridgetops and in sheltered areas.
Northerly 1/2 winds will redistribute any snow available to Southern aspects Watch for wind direction changes throughout the day and adjust plans accordingly. These slabs could be difficult to trigger however be cautious if seeking steep terrain on these aspects above 1700m.
With a rising freezing level and possible rain, the snow surface will soften quickly. Be aware of steep slopes softening quickly during the day on all aspects. Rollerballing is the first sign of the surface loosing cohesion.
X3 very small Wind Slabs reported in Tarn Basin 10/08
Small Wind Slab observed in Crystal Valley 11/08
Snow coverage across the forecast area is super variable. Up to 150cm in some areas down to rime covered rocks. Tests above 1700m show a thick rain crust is found closer to the ground (30-60cm down) on most aspects with a thin layer of sugary crystals (Facets) observed both above and below. Around 15cm of new snow in the past week has fallen above 1500m with rain or drizzle falling below this elevation. Warm temperatures have settled the upper snowpack somewhat.
Thursday: Rain about the Divide, easing in the morning. Isolated showers elsewhere, clearing in the afternoon as fine spells increase. Strong Northerly winds turning Northwest and easing in the afternoon. Freezing level 2400m.
Friday: Fine. Light winds. Freezing level 2000m.
Wind stripped areas and exposed ridges will be very firm.
Ice axe and Crampons are recommended if venturing out.
Moderate
New Zealand Avalanche Advisory (NZ Mountain Safety Council)
