Avalanche forecast

Queenstown

New Zealand Avalanche Advisory
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Avalanche danger

High Alpine · above 1,800 m
3 · Considerable
Alpine · 1,200 m–1,800 m
3 · Considerable
Sub Alpine · below 1,200 m
2 · Moderate
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Out of date — this forecast expired 2 days ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

The backcountry is no place to be today. The pack needs to drain and reset. Catch up with your washing and your mum!

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • All elevations
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1.5

    The pack has been saturated to the roof. Weak layers have been lubricated and will fail over the next 24 hrs. Keep well clear of steep sided gullies and avalanche run out zones. Be on the lookout for an increase in things like roller balling, pin wheeling. With sun forecast this afternoon we expect activity to be widespread.

  • Wind Slabs

    • All elevations
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2

    Winds have been a gale strength from the western half. More than 40 cm of new snow (over 48 hrs) has been redistributed. Entry points from the ridge-line and complex terrain will be scary places. The pack needs to settle, we need to gather more information.

  • Wet Slabs

    • All elevations
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2

    We know there are buried weak layers within the pack. We also know the pack is weak and saturated to ground. The combination is ripe for an increase in wet slab releases. If you see cracks or buckling of the snowpack AVOID. You don't want to get tangled up around these monsters.

Recent Avalanche Activity

Minimal backcountry information over the past 24 hrs. Local ski areas have been using explosive control work resulting in several size 2 events. We can expect similar size avalanches across our region.

Current Snowpack Conditions

Whoa, what a crazy 48 hrs! The current snowpack has had a major rinsing to around 2200 m. This morning, heavy wet snow has capped the saturated pack above 1800 m. Winds are still at gale strength, with scouring on windward slopes and drifts of up to 2m in lee start zones. We will see widespread loose wet activity. Expect rafting, pin wheeling and roller-balling.

Mountain Weather

120 km W winds slowly easing during the afternoon. Cloudy with a glimpse of sun possible before rain returns late afternoon. Snow lowering to 1600 m.

Sliding Danger

When frosts return so will the ice, not today folks.

Forecast Confidence

Moderate

  • We are uncertain about how the timing or intensity of solar radiation will affect the snowpack.
  • We are uncertain about how quickly persistent or deep persistent slabs are gaining strength.
  • We are uncertain about how quickly the snowpack will recover and gain strength.

New Zealand Avalanche Advisory (NZ Mountain Safety Council)

Regions covered