Avalanche forecast

Central Cascades

Central Oregon Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Out of date — this forecast expired 6 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Snow is falling and the temperature is expected to drop overnight bringing fresh light powder. This new snow will be easily moved by wind and wind slabs could be forming in select terrain overnight and into Friday.  As the temperature bumps up into the mid to upper 20's on Friday, the storm snow will have the tendency to gain cohesion and create the potential for storm slab avalanches.

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Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    The potential for large wind slabs exists on north and east aspects. Although the sustained wind is forecast to be light, the gusts are expected to pick up into the 20's, and that is more than enough to begin moving light snow. Given the wind forecast, these may be more isolated to particular terrain features that funnel or collect blowing snow.  Wind slabs could be more sensitive to triggering if they form on top of light cold snow.

    Wind slabs often form below ridge tops. Look for visual signs such as pillows of wind difted snow, and a wavy or uneven surface texture to indicate a surface may be wind loaded. Recently formed cornices can also be clues that wind slabs are present.

     

    Lee slopes can become loaded significantly deeper than the snow that falls out of the sky. Image taken from the Gallatin National Forest Avalanche Center website.

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1

    The snow is stacking up. The storm came in warm and is moving toward cooling off overnight before warming up a bit again on Friday. This could lead to the surface snow gaining slab properties and a mid storm instability.  Watch for signs of unstable snow such as cracking in the storm slab. Be cautious on steep, rolling, and unsupported terrain. 

    Depending on how the temperature actually plays, out, this could easily be replaced by a loose dry avalanche problem....time will tell. 

Avalanche Discussion

The storm came in warm on Thrusday, with daytime high temperatures creeping up to or just below freezing by midday. This can be in our favor as the warmer snow is more likely to bond well to the older snow surface, which was a crust of one type or another in much of the region. 

The wind slab problem is going to be an interesting one tomorrow as they probably won't be found on all 'lee slopes'. Watch for areas that affect how wind is moving. Look for blowing snow as a clue as to where wind slabs may be forming.

The upper snowpack is generally showing good structure. The January 12 rain crust is now down about ~70cm. This crust has continued to harbor weak snow below it for the last several weeks. Snowpack evaluation, test results, and lack of any avalanche activity on this layer suggest it will not be a source of failure in the snowpack, however it is something that will be monitored for a little longer. Below the Jan 12 crust sandwiches, the snowpack is strong. 

No avalanche activity has been reported in recent days.

The weather forecast has snow on the horizon for the foreseeable future. Condition will change day by day and we will be forecasting through Monday. Keep tuning in. 

 

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