Avalanche forecast

Northern New Mexico

Taos Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

The combination of new storm snow on a weak faceted snowpack is a good recipe for avalanches. Dangerous avalanche conditions exist today with human triggered persistent slab and storm slab avalanches likely near and above treeline. Cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making are essential today. Avoid slopes steeper than 35 degrees and be aware of being on or connected to avalanche slopes above you as it may be possible to trigger an avalanche from below.   

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Newly formed slabs from Friday's storm rest on top of the weak faceted snowpack that existed before this storm.  We've already added about an inch of water, which was enough to tip the scales on a couple of slopes as of yesterday afternoon. With another storm heading our way later this afternoon the snowpack won't get much time to adjust.

    Pay attention to obvious signs of instability like shooting cracks and loud audible collapses.  Avoid being on or beneath avalanche path runouts as we may see avalanches that are able to run long distances or be triggered from below.  

    Natural persistent slab avalanche from Friday afternoon on NE aspect that ran on weak facets near the ground.

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    9 to 12 inches of snow from Friday's storm combined with moderate west winds have created cohesive storm slabs at all elevations.  These storm slabs fell on a variety of different surfaces from near-surface facets to crusts and were very sensitive and touchy yesterday in our travels near and above treeline.  With another round of snow later today into tonight and increasing southwest winds these slabs will continue to grow.  

    These storm slabs tended to fail on the near surface-facet/storm slab interface and had the ability to step down to deeper faceted layers. Pay attention to obvious clues like shooting cracks, it possible to release these slabs from below or from far distances. Assume that a storm slab avalanche has the ability to step down into deeper weak layers creating larger more destructive avalanches.  

     

    Small storm slab on a steep slope near treeline that we intentionally triggered from below

Avalanche Discussion

A much-needed snowstorm has already brought our mountains 9 to 12 inches of snow with about an inch of snow water equivalent (SWE) and moderate west winds.  After a brief lull this morning, snow will pick back up this afternoon through the evening.  By Sunday morning we could see an additional 7 to 10 inches of snow in the mountains, with moderate to strong winds.  If we see the higher ends of the forecasted amounts, we may be heading to avalanche warning criteria with widespread avalanches in the overnight hours into Sunday.  We are issuing an Avalanche Watch for now and will be monitoring conditions closely.     

In travels on Friday, conditions became quite touchy and sensitive near and above treeline by the afternoon. It was easy to get small storm slabs to release in steep terrain from ski tips and from far distances.  I would suspect that conditions will not be as reactive today, but the overarching problem still exists.  Weak faceted snow on the surface before the storm has not bonded well to these cohesive slabs.  On some slopes, the weak cohesion-less snow goes all the way to the ground.  Below treeline, we are finding less cohesive slabs but there is still the ability in steep terrain to get the entire snowpack to entrain itself to the ground.  

Visibility was not great, but we did see evidence of a couple of natural persistent slab avalanches running on weak faceted layers near the ground.  This was confined to above treeline where we had the most amount of wind loading has happened.  We weren't able to make it ridgetops but would expect to see upwards of 2 foot drifted slabs on the leeward sides and in cross-loaded gullies.  These weak layers will need time to adjust this initial added weight.  Unfortunately, it won't get much time with another storm heading our way later today.  It's a safe assumption that any avalanche triggered today has the ability to run in deeper weak layers creating a larger more destructive avalanche.  Any ride could have serious consequences with buried rocks and downed trees.  

It's tempting to want to get out and enjoy the powder this morning as skiing and riding conditions have really improved. Today is not the day to push things, low angle powder skiing can be just as fun with a lot less risk than taking a nasty ride. 

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