Northern New Mexico

Stiff cohesive slabs on the surface that formed from the latest round of strong winds now cap an overall weak shallow faceted snowpack near and above treeline. Triggering a persistent slab avalanche remains possible at these elevations. Hard slabs tend to break in unpredictable ways often times well above you.  Any persistent slab avalanche may be large enough to bury, injure, or kill a person. Avoid terrain steeper than 35 degrees in areas where you find stiffer slabs over weak faceted snow.

Strong winds from 12/22-23 that were blowing in the 80's have done some damage to the skiing and riding conditions as well as produced hard stiff slabs on the surface on most slopes near and above treeline.  It's been pretty evident with a lack of traffic in the backcountry recently that conditions aren't all that great.  With this latest round of wind, pine bows are strewn about at lower elevations with breakable crusts and hard stiff slabs on the surface.  With these highly variable conditions, the biggest challenge might be not injuring your knee.

If you do find yourself out there, it's a good chance that you'll find a hard supportable surface that will feel hollow and may appear smooth and lens-shaped.  We were finding these hard slabs to be 5 - 15 cm thick but might be thicker on East facing slopes and in cross-loaded gullies above treeline.  These slabs will feel good underfoot, but the concerns are what lies underneath.  Overall, it's a shallow snowpack with several layers of weak facets that have not been strengthening over these last two weeks of high pressure. Recent winds have also reintroduced slabs on many slopes that previously had not had them, making for all the ingredients we need for a slab avalanche again.  These hard slabs may be stubborn to trigger but have the potential to propagate far distances if you find the sweet spot typically where the slabs thinnest. 

Below treeline and in wind-sheltered areas near treeline we have a shallow faceting snowpack that lacks a cohesive slab. Winds should help keep warming today at bay but it's not out of the realm of possibility that a small point release on a steep solar aspect might be able to entrain the weak cohesionless snow creating a larger avalanche that could easily push you around into trees or sweep you into a terrain trap.  

As we're drawing closer to the end of these last two weeks of high-pressure it's a good time to start thinking about where the snowpack currently stands and what that might mean for incoming storm early next week. Unfortunately, we haven't been able to round the corner this year with a deepening snowpack that would help strengthen the weak faceted layers. Avalanche activity has really subsided in the last week, which has been a function of not having a significant loading event since 12/12.   It sounds like a broken record, but the characteristics of the snowpack have not been changing with most slopes we get on having a similar structure.   Weak faceted snow makes up the majority of the snowpack, with stiff slabs on the surface.  As we introduce a load and new cohesive slabs expect avalanche activity to increase. Slopes you might have felt comfortable on will become suspect.  The storm is still a little ways out, but I know the temptation to want to ride powder is high right now. Ultimately, we have an eerily similar setup and snowpack structure to the avalanche cycle from 12/12 after coming out of a prolonged high-pressure period from the beginning of December.