Avalanche forecast

Elkhorns

Wallowa Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Fri
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 6 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

An overall weak snowpack structure exists in the Elkhorn mountains.  Where the solstice rain crust (December 20-21) is supportive to a person and/or machine, there is less likelihood of triggering a deep avalanche.  However- where the most recent crust is thinner and does not support your weight, the consequences of triggering a larger persistent slab exists.   When uncertainty in your ability to assess these conditions exist, choose simple terrain to recreate in.  Stay off of and stay out from underneath avalanche paths and limit your exposure to terrain traps. 

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    The snow surface in the Elkhorns is a mix of rain crust and new snow that fell on Monday night into Tuesday.  The crust was supportive to the weight of a person at 7000-8500'.  Expect to see exposed rain crust right next to areas that have windblown snow drifts up to 6-8".  You will may notice  graupel within the new snow drifts.  Look for isolated and small wind slabs that could be continuing to form with increasing winds today.  Likely areas will be on the leeward sides of ridgelines and cross loaded upper gullies.   The main problem here lies within the overall structure of the snowpack.  Observers found strong snow (slab) over very weak sugary snow (facets) that was 20" to 30" below the snow surface.  While the solstice rain crust is acting as a supportive layer to help insulate our weight from the weaker snow below, the uncertainty lies within the thickness and distribution of this rain crust.  At 8500' on an East aspect, observers found this rain crust to be like a layer cake consisting of three different crusts with snow mixed between them.  Where the rain crust is thicker and more uniform at lower elevations, there is less likelihood of triggering an avalanche into this older, weaker snow layer.   Stability tests indicated that once this weak layer is initiated, propogation is likely.  Triggering an avalanche into this older snow could create a deadly avalanche.   Early season conditions still exist, although the rain crust is helping to keep us off the ground. 

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