Avalanche forecast

West Slopes South

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

Warm and sunny weather should provide a great day for traveling in the mountains. As the snow surface softens, start to think about the possibility for loose wet slides, especially if you travel around very steep or rocky slopes receiving direct sunshine. Your greatest hazard may come from very firm and icy conditions earlier in the day.

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    It will probably take a while on Satruday for the sun and warm temperatures to soften the snow surface. As it does so, it may eventually create enough wet snow to produce small loose avalanches in a few isolated areas. These avalanches will be most likely on very steep slopes basking in the sun and around thinner spots in the snowpack like near rocks and cliffs. Pay attention to the snow surface as you travel throughout the day. Step off your sled, skis, or board and see how deep your foot sinks into the snow. If you find more than 4” (ankle deep) of wet snow on the surface, the balance may have tipped and loose avalanches could be possible. While these slides should remain small, don’t let them push you over a cliff or into a deep gully.

    (1/16/2022)

    Example: Wet loose avalanches on an east aspect near 6800ft on Hogback Mountain. You could see similar conditions Satruday. 

    Photo: Public Observation

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    If you plan to use this nice weather to head above treeline on the volcanoes, you may encounter pockets of wind drifted snow. While this wasn’t a big storm, several inches of snow fell above 6500ft near Mt St Helens and Mt Rainier Thursday. Strong winds may have formed slabs on the lee sides of ridges and exposed features. As you gain elevation, start to look for clues of wind transported snow and wind direction to figure out which features you may want to avoid. Textured surfaces and shallow drifts can help indicate where you might encounter a small wind slab.

    (1/15/2022)

    Example: A skier-triggered avalanche was reported Saturday 1/15 on an east aspect near 7500ft on Mt St Helens. The avalanche broke in wind drifted snow 12-18in deep. You could encounter similar conditions This weekend. 

    HS-AS-R2-D2

    Photo: Jeff Zimmerman

Avalanche Discussion

Normally hot and sunny weather like this would have us on edge. However, there are several things working in our favor Saturday to help limit the avalanche danger despite the heat. Long clear winter nights should allow the snow to freeze solid. In the morning you may encounter icy conditions that all but eliminate any wet avalanche risk. It will take a while for the sun and warm weather to start to soften the snow. Light to moderate winds during the day will help keep the surface cool and further hamper any melting. These two factors will help delay the development of avalanche danger. Short winter days with the sun lower in the sky will help limit where you could encounter avalanche danger. The sun will only shine directly on steeper SE-SW facing slopes. Finally, this warm-up comes as a continuation of a prolonged warm spell that began January 11th. The snowpack has seen extended periods of warm temperatures, several rounds of rain, and even a few wet avalanche cycles. As a result the upper snowpack primarily consists of strong crusts and spring-like snow (melt forms). All of these factors will work together Saturday to limit the avalanche danger despite the warm weather. 

Multiple avalanche professionals at Crystal Mt, Paradise, and White Pass all reported very firm and icy conditions on Friday. Make sure you plan ahead and have the gear and skills you need to navigate this potential danger.

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