Avalanche forecast

Soldier & Wood River Valley Mtns

Sawtooth Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Natural and human-triggered avalanches were reported at middle and lower elevations in the last two days. Avoid steep slopes with wind drifts or stiff snow on the surface to reduce the chances of triggering an avalanche. Although not likely, some avalanches could fail on layers deep in the snowpack releasing a slide large enough to snap trees or destroy a vehicle.

Conditions are more dangerous near the Smoky Mountain crest/Dollarhide Summit where Storm totals are greatest. Refer to the Galena Summit & Eastern Mtns Forecast if you're traveling in this area.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Today will be the last hurrah in a potent series of storms that began Monday night. Another 2-6" of dense snow is expected today, bringing storm totals to a solid 1-3' of snow (1-3" SWE) by the end of the day. Snowfall in this zone has heavily favored the Smoky mountain crest near Dollarhide Summit. Despite lower snow totals around the Wood River Valley, small, natural, and skier-triggered avalanches were reported above the Wood River Valley in the last two days.

    Strong wind blew throughout each storm, blowing from the S on Monday before switching to the SW-W-WNW. Today's wind will blow moderate to strong from the SW, switching to the W by the afternoon.

    Expect to find wind slabs, large drifts, and cornices in upper elevation and exposed middle elevation terrain. Triggering a wind slab is most likely near ridgelines, beneath cornices, and on the sides of cross-loaded gullies. Strong wind has mixed down into valley locations as well, so don't be surprised to find stiffer, wind-drifted snow near the mouths of main drainages, along Highway 75 and near prominent terrain features lower on slopes and on aprons at the bottom of chutes.

    Some of the wind slabs may have formed above weak snow in the upper part of the snowpack and could be more sensitive to triggering than you would expect. Cracks shooting out in front of you are a clear sign you could trigger wind slab avalanches. Pay attention to how the snow feels beneath your boards or sled. If you feel the snow stiffen or notice you're staying closer to the surface instead of sinking deep into the snowpack, you've found wind-affected snow and should avoid steep slopes. 

    Additional Discussion:Yesterday, high temperatures in Ketchum and Hailey reached near 38 F. Similar temperatures are expected again today. This warming has caused rapid settlement in recent storm snow enhancing your chance of triggering a slab avalanche on even wind-sheltered slopes at low elevations. These avalanches should be small but can have big consequences if they drag you into a terrain trap like a road cut or a creek bottom. If the snow surface is wet, expect to be able to trigger small wet loose avalanches, particularly on very steep S-SW facing slopes where recent snow sits above stout crusts.

    (1/5/2022) These small drifts were observed Wednesday in out-of-bounds terrain near Baldy.

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–3

    A mix of facets and crusts leftover from October snowfall make up the base of the snowpack on some shaded middle and upper elevation slopes. This old snow is most prevalent near Dollarhide Summit and in the Soldiers. Avalanches have failed on this layer during each major precipitation event. 

    The ongoing snowfall and wind are stressing the old October weak snow. The mountains near Dollarhide may be the "sweet spot" today where recent heavy snowfall and weak layers near the ground combine to produce scary avalanche conditions. While we don't anticipate widespread avalanche activity on this layer, it's nearly impossible to predict exactly which individual slopes are teetering on the edge.

    How are local professionals managing this problem? They are generally taking it off the table by avoiding slopes where the old snow exists. This travel strategy is pretty easy to swallow given the excellent riding and skiing conditions on slopes lacking the old October faceted snow.  

    (1/2/2022) This large persistent slab avalanche was observed above Corral Creek, near Johnstone Peak. It failed on a N/NW facing slope at 8,600'. The terrain and trees below the crown limited its size, but the crown is over 500' wide.

Avalanche Discussion

Snowfall will ramp up again today, hammering Banner Summit, the Sawtooths, and the Western Smokys. Storm totals since Monday evening will surpass 3-4' in these areas by the end of the day. As a result, the danger in the Sawtooth & Western Smoky Mountains Zone remains HIGH. Large, natural avalanches are very likely and avalanche terrain should be avoided. Check out the video Chris and Scott made yesterday while trenching through the storm snow near Smiley Creek. Dangerous avalanche conditions also exist near Dollarhide Summit and Galena Pass where storm totals should reach 3' by nightfall. A sharp gradient in snowfall occurs as you move to the east and south of the Smokys. Far less snow fell in our southern and eastern mountains but dangerous avalanche conditions exist in winder terrain. 

Unlike the disparate snowfall amounts across the zones, it's been windy everywhere. Small, natural, and skier-triggered avalanches were reported above the Wood River Valley in the last two days–occurring on obviously wind-loaded or cross-loaded slopes at middle and lower elevations. This picture Scott took yesterday illustrates the large "dunes" and small cornices that can build lower on slopes. The "lee" or downwind side of these types of features are prime locations to find a sensitive wind slab. The wind has stiffened the snow surface on many slopes in the past few days. Even subtle wind-loading can increase the odds of triggering a soft slab avalanche on steep slopes. Pay close attention to how the snow feels under your feet. If you feel the snow stiffen or notice you're staying closer to the surface instead of sinking deep into the snowpack, you've found wind-affected snow. 

Today's high temperatures will reach into the upper 30s F again today near Fairfield, Hailey, and Stanley. Near or slightly above freezing temperatures will also creep into middle elevations. Warming has condensed the storm snow, creating top-heavy slabs on some lower and middle elevation slopes. These slabs may peel off naturally or be sensitive to your weight. This effect may be amplified in areas like the foothills of the White Clouds, Boulders, Pioneers, and around the Wood River Valley that harbor weaker, shallower snowpacks at lower elevations. I saw small, elk-triggered wet loose slides near Hailey yesterday and similar slides were reported from the Soldier foothills. Across the board, it's good to realize that conditions may change quickly as the day warms. 

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