Avalanche forecast

Galena Summit & Eastern Mtns

Sawtooth Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Fri
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Continued snowfall and strong wind are creating dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid steep slopes with wind drifts or stiff snow on the surface to reduce the chances of triggering an avalanche. Avalanches could fail on layers deep in the snowpack releasing a slide large enough to snap trees or destroy a vehicle.

Conditions are more dangerous near Galena Summit south along the Smoky mountains to Dollarhide Summit where storm totals are greatest.  

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Expect to find wind slabs, large drifts, and cornices in upper elevation and exposed middle elevation terrain. Snowfall in this zone has heavily favored the Smoky mountain crest dumping ~2' of snow (1.8-2.4" SWE) since Monday night from Galena Summit south to Dollarhide Summit. Snow will diminish today after another few inches fall this morning. Triggering a wind slab is likely near ridgelines, beneath cornices, and on the sides of cross-loaded gullies. 

    Strong wind has mixed down into valley locations as well, so don't be surprised to find stiffer, wind-drifted snow near the mouths of main drainages, along Highway 75 and near prominent terrain features lower on slopes and on aprons at the bottom of chutes.

    Some of the wind slabs may have formed above weak snow in the upper part of the snowpack and could be more sensitive to triggering than you would expect. Cracks shooting out in front of you are a clear sign you could trigger wind slab avalanches. Pay attention to how the snow feels beneath your boards or sled. If you feel the snow stiffen or notice you're staying closer to the surface instead of sinking deep into the snowpack, you've found wind-affected snow and should avoid steep slopes. 

    Additional Discussion:Temperatures climbed steadily through the night and will reach near 40 F at the lowest elevations today. This warming could cause rapid settlement in recent storm snow enhancing your chance of triggering a slab avalanche on even wind-sheltered slopes at low elevations. These avalanches should be small but can have big consequences if they drag you into a terrain trap like a road cut or a creek bottom. 

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2–3

    A mix of facets and crusts leftover from October snowfall make up the base of the snowpack on most shady middle and upper elevation slopes. Some sunnier, upper elevation aspects have this layer too. Avalanches have failed on this layer during each major precipitation event. 

    The ongoing snowfall and wind are stressing the old October weak snow. The Smoky mountains may be the "sweet spot" today where heavy snowfall and weak layers near the ground combine to produce some big avalanches. While we don't anticipate widespread avalanche activity on this layer, it's nearly impossible to predict exactly which individual slopes are teetering on the edge.

    How are local professionals managing this problem? They are generally taking it off the table by avoiding slopes where the old snow exists. This travel strategy is pretty easy to swallow given the excellent riding and skiing conditions on slopes lacking the old October faceted snow.  

    (1/1/2022) This avalanche in Prairie Creek occurred sometime during or just after the Christmas storm. E/NE aspect at 9,500'.

Avalanche Discussion

Yesterday, snowfall along the Sawtooth and Smoky mountains just didn't want to quit. Storm totals since Monday evening are pushing well over 2' and will surpass 3' by the end of the day. As a result, the danger in the Sawtooth & western Smoky Mountains Zone has bumped to HIGH. Large, natural avalanches are likely and avalanche terrain should be avoided. Honorable mentions in neighboring zones include Dollarhide Summit and Galena Pass where similarly dangerous avalanche conditions exist. A sharp gradient in snowfall occurs as you move to the east and south of the Smokys. Far less snow fell in our southern and eastern mountains but dangerous avalanche conditions exist in winder terrain. 

Unlike the disparate snowfall amounts across the zones, it's been windy everywhere. Yesterday it sounded like a category 3 hurricane on top of Baker Pk. The Peak 2 weather station in the Soldiers recorded a gust of 123 mph and gusts topped 100 mph in 7 of the last 24 hours. Observers reported wind-blown snow anywhere from the high peaks to Highway 75 and the foothills above the valley floor. This wind affect built sensitive wind slabs yesterday, some of which failed naturally or were triggered by skiers. It also stiffened the snow surface on many slopes, increasing the odds of triggering a smaller, soft slab avalanche on some steep slopes. 

The final twist? It's eerily warm out there. Today's high temperatures will reach 40 F near Fairfield, Hailey, and Stanley. Near or slightly above freezing temperatures will also creep into middle elevations. This warming will act to condense the slab, stiffening the snow surface and creating top-heavy slabs on some lower elevation slopes. These slabs may peel off naturally or be sensitive to your weight. There's a lot of uncertainty here, amplified by the weak, shallower snowpack at lower elevations. Across the board, it's good to realize that conditions may change quickly as the day warms. Related to this concern, is the often overlooked hazard of roof avalanches. I saw a few steep, metal roofs release yesterday afternoon. If yours hasn't shed its snow, there's a good chance today is the day. 

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