Avalanche forecast

Southeast Mountains

Crested Butte Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Tue
Alpine
1 · Low
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

The snowpack is unseasonably deep and generally stable.  It has been about a week since we have observed avalanche activity or obvious signs of instability.  Weak layers still exist near the ground on the northern half of the compass, and we can't completely rule out the lingering potential for triggering a deadly avalanche from a shallow spot on the slope.   You can give yourself an extra margin of safety by riding in terrain where the snowpack is deep and uniform.  Continue to travel one at a time in avalanche terrain and regroup in appropriate safe zones for a surprise large avalanche.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    2–2.5

    Persistent slabs are a low likelihood but consequential concern on the northern half of the compass, where faceted weak layers lurk near the ground.   You are most likely to impact these layers and trigger a dangerous avalanche where slabs are thinner.  Choose terrain with a deep, uniform snowpack to reduce your risk.  Be cautious in unsupported, rocky terrain or in alpine terrain where winds have created variable snow depths.  Slopes that avalanched early in the holiday cycle or slopes in the shallowest parts of the Southeast Mountains also have thinner slabs that could be more susceptible to triggers.

    One of the few deep slab avalanches triggered since the New Year.  This was an explosive triggered hard slab on a west aspect at Irwin, where slab depths are variable due to seasonal wind patterns.  

Avalanche Discussion

Continued explosive testing without results and improving trends in stability tests yesterday (video) in the Southeast Mountains are the final pieces we were looking for to nudge the entire forecast area to a LOW danger rating.   Although evidence for lowering the danger has been mounting all week, we've been extra cautious to do so because of the high consequences of finding an isolated instability.    It has been over two weeks since our last natural avalanche on basal weak layers; all of the natural activity within our forecast area since New Year's Day has been small and shallow.  The last human-triggered avalanche breaking on deep weak layers in our forecast area was December 25th and obvious signs of instability for basal weak layers have been absent all month.  Explosive testing produced a few large results earlier this month but no avalanche activity since Monday. This unusually quiet snowpack is the result of the tremendous amount of snow that fell in December, which blessed us with a deep snowpack that makes it difficult to impact early season weak layers near the ground.   The lack of snowfall in the past week has given the snowpack time to adjust and has further reduced the threat of a weak layer failure if you do manage to impact one from a shallow spot.  Long story short, apart from shallow sluffs, it is very difficult to trigger an avalanche right now BUT any resulting avalanche will be large enough to bury you. 

Low danger does not mean no danger.  Across our forecast area, there are fewer worrisome slopes with each day of dry weather. The slopes that give us pause remain the same:  steep, unsupported, rocky terrain or high elevation slopes with variable slab depths because of winds.  Those concerns are strictly on the northern half of the compass, where the foundation to the snowpack was weak and faceted before our December storm cycles.    You can further reduce your risk by avoiding that type of terrain.  With a dry outlook for most of the month, the snowpack will continue its trend of getting stronger and more trustworthy.  If you are eyeing big objectives, start with the ones that have a deeper and more uniform snowpack now, and save the lines littered with rocks and variable snow depths for later this month.  

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