Avalanche forecast

Avalanche forecast

Payette Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
Out of date — this forecast expired 5 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Wind slabs will be growing with up to 10 inches or more of snow and 30 plus mph wind gusts forecasted. Above 6,000 feet, in wind-sheltered terrain, storm slabs will be sensitive to the weight of a snowmobile and even the weight of a skier.  Below 6,000 feet, the snow is wet and not frozen, and may produce wet loose avalanches.

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Warmer snow started falling on Wednesday on top of colder light density snow. We knew it could not hold on, and we were able to get results in ski cuts on Wednesday and Thursday in the upper foot of snow. More snow is going to fall today which will only make this problem more sensitive. Terrain that is sheltered and steeper than 30 degrees is ripe with this problem and should be avoided. 

    Suttle changes in slope angle are enough to create an area for this problem to arise. Getting pushed by even a small amount of snow can disable you enough to send you out of control and into terrain or trees you were not planning on visiting.

    Stay alert, practice good travel protocols and keep your eyes on your partners.

     

     

    (1/6/2022)

    SS-ASc-R1-D1.5

    Photo: Kevin Studley

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    While older wind slabs formed a few days ago under variable wind directions and speeds, and may be stabilizing, Today a fresh crop of wind slabs are forming under strong winds forecasted along with around 10 inches of snow.

    Leeward terrain above 7,000 feet is going to get the most load and be the most dangerous.

    Look for clues on the snow surface that indicate the direction of loading like etching, drifts, pillows, and or scoured areas where the snow is literally gone. The mountains can influence wind direction or loading so be constantly looking for those directional clues.

     

    (1/6/2022: Observation submitted from public...Wind slab on North aspect of Sgt's on Thursday.

Avalanche Discussion

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We have developed a strong over weak set-up in our snowpack. What was a winter wonderland from the valley floor and above has changed gradually and is going to change today as temps cool back down and more snow and strong winds are forecasted through the day?

Thursday, rain fell on snow to around 6,000 feet. Wet snow will take a bit longer to re-freeze with a blanket of cold snow above it. Temperatures are going to start dropping this afternoon, and likely we will have saturated snow beneath cold snow.

Steeper terrain (30 degrees and steeper) is going to be reactive to the weight of a snowmobile and even the lighter weight of a skier...if you are seeing red flags like cracking and whoomphing, choose another, safer route and give the snowpack more time to adjust to the warmer temps and this weird stress that is being put on it. 

Warming temperatures have created a sensitive storm slab on the snow surface. Thursday, Kevin toured around the edges of Tamarack resort and was able to get cracks and ski cut results in the upper foot of snow where a denser slab has developed and is struggling to hang on to the snow beneath that was light and dry (remember?). Also on Thursday, we got an observation from the North of Brundage resort on Sgt's mountain where they observed shallow small D1-2 natural avalanches in the new storm snow, and wind slabs on the North aspect and were able to get ski cut results also.

Winds were strong out of the South last Sunday and Monday which created a brief period of High danger and thick wind slabs and a natural avalanche cycle that most people never witnessed as a lot of evidence was either buried or really hard to see in the fog and snow. Wednesday, we saw a switch in winds and Northwest flow into the light to moderate range. Since Tuesday we picked up about 2 feet of snow that has seen variable winds. 

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday are going to be days to incorporate extra safety margins into your plan. Avalanche problems are going to be Wind slabs and storm slabs above 6,000 feet and possibly wet loose snow below 6,000 feet. 

*** Check out our Observations Page to see what others are seeing...We are always looking for more Information from snowmobilers and skiers on snow and weather conditions. These observations help our forecasts and they help other users in and outside of the community.

It can be quick with or without a photo…Use the Observations link at the top of the page to submit your observations. If you experience any unfortunate technical issues please email us at [email protected]…Thanks ahead of time.