Avalanche forecast

Aoraki/Mt Cook

New Zealand Avalanche Advisory
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Avalanche danger

High Alpine · above 2,000 m
3 · Considerable
Alpine · 1,500 m–2,000 m
2 · Moderate
Sub Alpine · below 1,500 m
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 2 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

With a week of unsettled conditions and new snow from just about all aspects, we have to consider an almost non investigated recent snowpack.

Extra caution and careful assessment of snow conditions are needed. Plan your route selection to optimise lower angles and lower consequence runouts until we've had a good sniff around to see what's out there.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • All elevations
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2

    Wind slab danger is possible on all aspects above 1500 m. The initial northwesterly storm deposited over 1.5 m of new snow near the Divide, creating deep wind-loaded deposits on east- to south-facing aspects.

    From Sunday afternoon, winds shifted to the southeast and have continued strengthening through Monday, redistributing the new snow and forming fresh wind slabs on west- to north-facing aspects. This has continued overnight Monday and into early Tuesday/Wednesday.

  • Loose Wet

    • All elevations
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1

    The sun is back! Great! But part of the settling influence of warmer temperatures and sunshine, is a period of localised "shedding".

    Steep terrain affected by the sun in the heat of the day are the prime players. Time your travel to avoid being there (or under such) in the warm periods of the day.

Recent Avalanche Activity

Observations were limited due to low cloud.

Please let us know via the Public Observations link if you see anything of note.

Current Snowpack Conditions

Over 1.5 m of new snow likely fell near the Main Divide between 4–5 July, accompanied by strong northwesterly winds. The freezing level was initially around 2300 m before lowering to approximately 1800 m. Deep wind-loaded deposits are likely in sheltered terrain on east- to south-facing aspects.

From Sunday afternoon, winds shifted to a cold southeasterly. A further 20–30 cm of new snow has probably fallen across eastern regions with more to come, down to about 600m. This shift in wind direction creates a situation with slab possible on basically all aspects. Just a few cm on Tuesday, and again another 10-15cm on Wednesday.

Surface hoar and near-surface facets were observed prior to the storm. If these weak layers survived the strong winds and rain, they are most likely buried on east- to south-facing aspects above 2100 m. Their presence, distribution, and reactivity remain uncertain and are the subject of ongoing investigation.

Mountain Weather

Morning cloud clearing to fine. Moderate south easterlies dying out.

A freezing level lifting from 800m to around 2000m by the end of the day.

Sliding Danger

At snowline elevations and up to around 1800m, or where the wind has stripped slopes, expect a very firm icy layer.Ice axe and crampons are essential for travel above the snowline, especially in areas where the rain crust is exposed or only thinly covered by snow.

Forecast Confidence

Low

  • We are uncertain about forecast snowfall amounts.
  • We are uncertain due to the variability of wind effect on the snowpack.
  • We are uncertain about how the timing or intensity of solar radiation will affect the snowpack.

New Zealand Avalanche Advisory (NZ Mountain Safety Council)

Regions covered