Avalanche forecast

Moab

Utah Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

  • Alpine
  • Treeline
  • Below treeline
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Out of date — this forecast expired 6 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

New and wind drifted snow has added stress to underlying persistent weak layers and the avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE on steep slopes that face NW-N-E. Human triggered avalanches are likely in these areas. A MODERATE danger exists at low elevations. Due to low coverage, most south-facing terrain has LOW danger.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2

    New and wind drifted now have formed a dense slab on top of buried persistent weak layers of loose, sugary faceted snow. This slab is ripe for human triggers on steep slopes facing NW-N-E - or basically, any steep slope that has enough snow to ski or ride. This problem will only get worse as additional snow piles on top and it will continue to be a danger for the foreseeable future. As new snow makes more terrain accessible, temper your enthusiasm and avoid north-facing slopes steeper than 30 degrees as well as connected, lower angle terrain.

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2

    Stiff deposits of wind drifted snow have formed on the leeward sides of ridge crests and terrain features in wind-exposed terrain. These will be most problematic on steep, northerly facing slopes where they will add additional stress to a weak, underlying snowpack. In these areas, a triggered wind drift will likely step down into buried weak layers causing a deeper and more dangerous avalanche. Avoid steep, freshly wind drifted slopes, especially those with a northerly component to their aspect.

Special Announcement

Check out the most recent blog post from Chris Benson with a recap of the current state of the snowpack and an analysis of the sometimes thin line between Moderate and Considerable danger.

The Geyser Pass Road Expect an inch or two of new snow on dirt and patches of old snow and ice.

The Lower Utah Nordic Alliance (LUNA) packed out all trails and groomed with classic track into Gold Basin on Saturday.

Snow and Weather

24 Hour Snow 3" 72 Hour Snow 6" Base Depth in Gold Basin 27" Wind S 10-55 G 30 Temp 18F

Yesterday's storm continued through mid-day and we managed to pick up about 6" of fairly dense new snow. Moderate to strong SW winds blew most of the day. They backed off slightly overnight. Today look for developing snow showers as the next Pacific low tracks through the region. It doesn't appear to be a big hitter but we'll take what we can get - maybe a couple of inches today and a couple more tonight. Yet another system is poised to move through on Monday. It's not looking as favorable as it once was but we should still some snow.

NWS Weather Forecast.

Wind, temperature, humidity on Pre Laurel Peak (11,700')

Snotel site near Geyser Pass Trailhead (9600')

Storm totals at the Gold Basin study plot (10,000')

Snowpack Discussion

New and wind drifted snow has added additional stress to our weak and faceted snowpack. In my travels to the Abajos yesterday I found very sensitive conditions with widespread shooting cracks and collapsing on any slope that had pre-existing faceted snow. Tim Mathews and Mark Sevenoff were up on Laurel Ridge yesterday, and although things weren't quite as sensitive here, they too reported signs of instability and red flag weather conditions such as active wind loading. Read their report here.

The following video illustrates the red flag signs of instability I observed in the Abajos yesterday. La Sal conditions aren't quite as sensitive but they aren't far behind.

General Announcements

This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

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