Avalanche forecast

Northern New Mexico

Taos Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Dangerous avalanche conditions exist today near and above treeline, where new snow and strong winds have built 2 to 3-foot storm slabs. Human-triggered avalanches are likely and natural avalanches are possible. Pay attention to obvious signs of instability like shooting cracks and loud audible collapses. Faceted weak layers near crusts higher up in the snowpack, as well as depth hoar near the ground in shallow snowpacks, may become more reactive with this latest load.  Careful snowpack evaluation and cautious route-finding are essential today.  Avoid slopes steeper than 30 degrees giving avalanche paths wide berths.

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    New snow and shifting strong winds over the last several days have built 2 to 4-foot storm slabs on many slopes.  Near and above treeline on the leeward sides of ridgelines and cross-loaded terrain these slabs have been stiffened by recent strong winds and may appear smooth and round as wind drifted pillows.  Pay attention to obvious signs of instability like shooting cracks and loud audible collapses.  Avoid slopes over 30 degrees, where you find 12 inches or more of new snow.  A smaller storm slab has the potential to step down into deeper weak layers, creating a larger more destructive avalanche. 

    Stiffening 2-foot wind drifted slab that was failing on a density change above a firm crust that formed from the warm temperatures prior to these latest round of storms

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2

    Buried near-surface facets and faceted crusts in the upper portions of the snowpack that were reactive during the Daylight savings storm in the middle of March have mainly been quiet over the last 10 days.  With continued snowfall and close to 2" of water so far, this significant load may make these weak layers more reactive than what we've seen over the last week. In shallow snowpacks (less than 150 cm) that still exist on some slopes in our mountains, large grain facets and depth hoar near the ground continue to linger.  Before committing to a slope, take the time to dig a quick pit to assess if any of these persistent weak layers are reactive. Avoid likely trigger points on steep slopes on the margins of the slab and near rock outcrops. Always think about the consequences if you were to trigger one of these larger persistent slab avalanches.   

Avalanche Discussion

It's been an active weather week as winter is not done with us yet.  Since Monday night a series of three storms has brought 20 to 26 inches of snow with over 2" of snow water equivalent (SWE).  Snowfall will continue today where we could pick up an additional 2 to 4 inches throughout the day. 

In recent travels, there is a big difference between wind-sheltered slopes below treeline and those exposed to winds. Slopes at higher elevations exposed to winds have thickening and stiffening slabs with an upside-down characteristic to them. Shooting cracks off of ski tips were widespread in these stiffened slabs.  Visibility has not been the greatest, but we have observed small natural storm slab avalanches in steep terrain near and above treeline.   Over the last several days, moderate to strong winds have shifted from the East back to our typical SW wind direction.  East winds have helped load slopes in unusual places that we're not typically accustomed to. 

Below treeline, the new snow is bonding better to the old existing surface, but we were observing wet facets below crusts on some slopes.  Last week's warm temperatures have helped water to percolate deeper into the already shallow snowpacks at these elevations. If you are in this terrain, pay attention to slopes where you start to poke through into old snow.  Lower angle wind-sheltered slopes will provide great powder skiing and a safer alternative to wind-exposed slopes at higher elevations.       

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