Avalanche forecast

Northern New Mexico

Taos Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

Steep slopes on Northwest through East aspects near and above treeline pose the greatest concern today. It's in these areas that's it's still possible to trigger a persistent slab avalanche, where you find stiff cohesive slabs over weak faceted snow. These avalanches may be large enough to bury, injure, or kill a person. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully before committing to a particular slope. 

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    An overall poor snowpack structure exists on many Northwest through East slopes near and above treeline.  It's on these slopes that you're most likely to find stiff cohesive slabs over very weak faceted snow. A strong wind event just before Christmas developed stiff hard slabs that now have settled storm snow from Dec 29 resting on top. Prolonged periods of high pressure earlier in this season have formed uniform weak layers of facets and depth hoar throughout our snowpack. 

    Triggering an avalanche on one of these weak layers has become increasingly stubborn and difficult as we become further removed from our last loading event. You are most likely to trigger an avalanche on these slopes over areas where the slab is thinnest such as around rock outcroppings and on the margins of the slab. You can mitigate this hazard by avoiding slopes greater than 35 degrees.  

    We continue to find a similar snowpack structure on NW through E slopes near and above treeline. The weak layer of concern continues to be small grained facets beneath the hard slab.

Avalanche Discussion

Not much has been changing with the overall avalanche concerns in our mountains over the last week. Even though we have a poor snowpack structure of strong over weak on many slopes, triggering an avalanche right now has become increasingly difficult, but is not impossible as we push further and further away from the last loading event. We are firmly entrenched in the classic low likelihood, high consequence avalanche conditions.  It may not be the first but the fifth person on a slope to trigger an avalanche. And if one were to be triggered there's a decent chance it would be large enough to bury a skier or rider.  

In long column tests, we continue to get weak layers to fail with easy to moderate force with the ability to propagate.  So what is that telling us?  Even though it's "concerning" results and shouldn't be ignored it's still stubborn to trigger an avalanche right now as we are close to 2 weeks removed from the last loading event.  What these tests are telling me, is that the persistent weak layers have remained incredibly weak and have not been healing or strengthening. When we do get snow and a load (potentially this weekend) the persistent weak layers we have in the snowpack are going to really struggle. Here's a great video from Karl Birkeland explaining the importance of adding a load on weak layers.  

It's not a bad time to turn our attention to what the weekend may look like with a snowstorm approaching our mountains Saturday.  As with the last two loading events in December, avalanche danger quickly increased with both natural and human triggered avalanches during these cycles. So will this storm be any different? The short answer is probably not.  Unfortunately the norm this year has been extended periods of high-pressure following storms, which really haven't helped build a deeper stronger snowpack.  The snowpack right now shares a lot of similarities to what we had before the storm at the end of December.  It's a weak faceted shallow snowpack that if we see the upper ends of the forecasted amount of snow will struggle to adjust to this load.  Slopes, especially below treeline that are missing a cohesive slab right now, could develop the missing ingredient needed with this storm to produce slab avalanches.  As exciting as it'll be to finally get snow, we should see an increase in avalanche danger Saturday night into Sunday.    

Below treeline, we lack cohesive slabs with mostly a weak shallow cohesionless snowpack on northerly and shady aspects. South aspects have been melting back to bare ground and below 10,000' the overall snowpack is incredibly shallow.   Ground hazards are abundant and in steep terrain, you may get snow to start to entrain itself creating a loose snow avalanche that could drag you down the slope over a cliff or into a terrain trap.

 

The BCA Beacon Basin Park is up and operational for the year as well! Located at the base of Chair 4 at Taos Ski Valley, this is a great place to practice using your avalanche transceiver before heading out into the backcountry. BCA has also put together a series of fantastic video products overviewing the topics of beacon searches, probing, and strategic shoveling. These aren't a replacement for companion rescue education but can help to fill in some of the gaps that form with most perishable skills. Times during high pressure are great for getting out to work on your companion rescue skills. Grab a friend and have fun with it!

You can find each video here...

Beacon Search | Probing | Strategic Shoveling

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