Avalanche forecast

Northern New Mexico

Taos Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Tue
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Dangerous avalanche conditions exist above treeline where human triggered wind slab avalanches are likely. Pay attention to changes in the stiffness of the snow surface and obvious wind drifted pillows.  Leeward sides of ridgelines and cross-loaded slopes are the places you're most likely to find these wind slabs. Faceted persistent weak layers continue to linger in our snowpack at all elevations. A persistent slab avalanche has the potential to be large and very destructive. Cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making are essential today.  

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Moderate to strong winds during the storm Saturday night has drifted snow into cohesive wind slabs. Westerly winds will be increasing today and should easily be able to transport the abundance of low-density snow,  These slabs will be found above treeline and open exposed areas near treeline. Leeward sides of ridgelines and cross-loaded terrain may have slabs 1 to 2 feet thick that rest on top of firm surfaces enabling a wind slab avalanche to run further than expected.  Pay attention to the stiffening of the snow surface and wind drifted pillows.   Shooting cracks and collapsing are other bulls-eye clues of unstable snow.  A smaller wind slab avalanche has the potential to step down into deeper weak layers creating a larger more destructive avalanche. 

     

    Photo from 2/13 right at the start of the storm. With more snow and winds building storms slabs on firm hard crusts from last week's strong winds.

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–3

    Faceted weak layers continue to persist in the snowpack at all elevations.  Near and below treeline terrain has a shallower weak faceted snowpack with newly formed storm slabs resting on top.  It's in this terrain that skiers could still easily impact these weak layers. Open and exposed terrain at higher elevations have deeper snowpacks and stiffening slabs from last week's wind events. Faceted weak layers continue to linger deeper down in the snowpack but may be harder to impact unless you hit a likely trigger point where the slab is thinner on the margins or near rock outcrops. 

    In observations the other day from above treeline, we were observing a concerning small-grained faceted weak layer just below the most recent harder wind slab that now buried under a foot or two of new snow.  We were finding this weak layer to be reactive in extended column tests.     

    Obvious signs of instability like loud audible whumf's and shooting cracks may not be present.  Remotely triggered avalanches from below or adjacent slopes is a possibility with avalanches breaking wider than expected. Any persistent slab avalanche would be large and may fail on weak layers near the ground taking with it most of the season's snowpack.

    Multiple faceted weak layers exist in the snowpack, with some closer to the surface. The weak faceted snow closer to the ground continues to remain a concern.

Avalanche Discussion

The Valentine's Day storm has finally made its exit last night bringing storm totals of 8 to 12 inches of snow with about .8" of snow water equivalent (SWE).  The artic air mass has finally made it to New Mexico and temperatures are frigid this morning hovering around 0 F.  Today will be a transition day with the return of the sun before another potent storm system pushes in later tonight through Wednesday.  With another foot or two of snow forecasted avalanche danger will stay elevated over the next several days.

Several natural storm slab avalanches were reported yesterday mainly above treeline on the leeward sides of ridgelines where we had the most loading. We also had a small skier triggered avalanche on a steep convex roll below treeline.  If the sun makes its appearance today we could see small loose snow avalanches in steep terrain on solar aspects.

This latest round of low-density snow has greatly improved the skiing and riding and might be some of the best conditions we've had all year.  Winds that accompanied this last round of snow were mainly only at the higher elevations along ridgelines and open exposed cross-loaded terrain.  It's in this terrain that we're finding cohesive wind slabs able to propagate from ski tips. Transportable wind speeds today should easily move the light snow into soft slabs at higher elevations. 

Below and near treeline, we have a shallow weak faceted snowpack, that in travels yesterday we were punching through to the ground in spots on skis. These facets and depth hoar continue to linger and have been slow to heal.  Obvious signs of instability like cracking and collapsing have diminished recently, but with another significant storm on our doorstep, we may see these persistent weak layers becoming more reactive as we continue to load slopes and build slabs at these lower elevations. 

Deeper snowpacks above treeline have harder to impact weak layers deeper down in the snowpack but may just require you to hit a "sweet spot" where the slab is thinner. You'll need to dig down into the slope to assess what the snowpack structure is like.  A probe or ski pole can also be useful to feel for these layers.  If you were to trigger an avalanche on these deeper layers, it could release a large or very large avalanche that would be unmanageable and most likely unsurvivable.              

 

The skiing and riding are fantastic right now. but don't let "powder fever" push you into steeper more committing terrain.  There were two more avalanche fatalities in CO yesterday from the same storm we just got.  Sticking to wind sheltered slopes less than 35 degrees is a great way to have fun and stay safe. 

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