Recent and wind drifted snow have dangerously overloaded a weak snowpack, and the avalanche danger remains CONSIDERABLE on steep, wind drifted slopes facing NW-N-E. Dangerous, humantriggeredavalanches 2' - 4' deep remain highly possible in these areas. Most other terrain has MODERATE to LOW danger.
Recent and wind drifted snow have begun to dangerously overload the layers of weak, sugary, faceted snow that comprises much of the snowpack. Slabs 2''-4' deep now exist on top of this weak snow. You are most likely to trigger an avalanche involving these persistent weak layers on steep, wind loaded, northerly facing slopes right around treeline, or in shallower, rocky areas in the alpine.
Southerly winds have blown and drifted snow on to northerly aspects right around treeline and above and many slopes are fat and loaded. Look for fresh drifts on the leeward sides of ridge crests and terrain features in upper elevation, wind exposed terrain. Fresh drifts are recognizable by their smooth, rounded appearance and cracking is a sign of instability. In these same areas, a triggered wind slab could step down into a buried persistent weak layer causing a deeper and more dangerous avalanche. Avoid steep, wind loaded slopes today.
Yesterday, I and others observed this large natural avalanche in Red Snow Cirque. It likely ran Saturday afternoon or evening after an increase in southerly winds. Like other slides of late, it involved wind drifted snow over top of weak, faceted snow.
I also updated the report sent in by Casey Bateman with a photo of the natural avalanche that occurred in Exxon's Folley on Thursday.
Road Conditions: Grand County will be back up plowing this morning. Expect the gate to be locked until around noon.
Grooming: LUNA Matt groomed yesterday.
UAC operating schedule - We will continue issuing regular avalanche forecasts into mid April.
Spring Awareness Campaign - The UAC counts on donations from the backcountry community. We know these are uncertain times and any donation during our awareness campaign will help us continue providing avalanche forecasting and education.
CDC Guidelines - Even in the backcountry and in parking lots, please follow CDC guidelines like limiting group size and keeping a distance of at least 6 feet from other people to protect yourself and others. Read the guidelines HERE.
Taking risks - Be extra conservative to avoid the risk of accidents which can stress the capacity of our medical system.
New to the backcountry (including riding at closed resorts) - Watch the award-winning, 15 minute Know Before You Go video, or take the 5-part, free online-learning series.
24 Hour Snow 0" Weekly Snow 19" Base Depth in Gold Basin 68" Wind SSE 15-20 G30 Temp 25F
Wind, temperature, humidity on Pre Laurel Peak (11,700')
Storm totals at Gold Basin Study Plot (10,000').
Snotel site near Geyser Pass Trailhead (9600').
NWS weather forecast
Weather: Southerly winds ramped up last night and clouds have begun to spill in as a weak weather system approaches our area. Look for scattered snow showers to develop after about 10:00 a.m. with 1"-3" possible. SW winds will blow in the 15-20 mph range with ridgetop gusts near 30. High temps at 10,000' will be right around freezing. Tue and Wed look to be dry and mostly sunny with the next system slated to affect the region on Thursday. It doesn't look real promising for us at this time.
Snowpack: Recent and wind drifted snow has piled up on a fragile snowpack that in many areas is comprised largely of weak, sugary, faceted snow. Weak snow can be found on all aspects but the weakest snow exists on northerly facing slopes right around treeline and below. Alpine areas generally have a deeper and stronger snowpack, especially out in the middle of concave bowls. However, slope margins, wind-swept areas, and areas right around rocks, cliffs, or sub-ridges have a much thinner snowpack. Weak, faceted snow exists in these areas. The recent spate of natural and human triggered avalanches in the alpine have included areas of wind drifted snow that have propagated into areas with weak, faceted snow.
I and many others still found good powder conditions yesterday, but the sun was definitely out long enough to affect exposed slopes and most will be crusted over today. Travis Nauman and company sent in this report from yesterday. They noted minor signs of wet instability on S and W aspects as well as some loose, wet sluffs.
Check out the avalanche beacon training park at the Geyser Pass Trailhead and practice your rescue skills!
This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
