Avalanche forecast

Avalanche forecast

Payette Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
Out of date — this forecast expired 5 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

The Avalanche danger will rise to Moderate again today. Over 48 hours of above-freezing temperatures and the sun will make wet loose avalanches and even deeper wet slab avalanches possible. 

 

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    With the sustained heat in the upper elevations for the third day in a row now, and the sun beating down on the snow surface, there are going to be more loose-wet avalanches. If you are on a slope steeper than 30 degrees, especially a southern aspect in the afternoon, you are more than likely going to trigger some rollerballs and or a wet-loose avalanche. Get enough snow moving, and you could help overload deeper weak layers in the snowpack, and maybe trigger a wet-slab avalanche.

    If you are sinking past your ankles, or you see any wet loose activity on a steep slope, choose another route that is not getting hot, especially in the afternoon. 

    (Saturday 4/3/2021) Natural wet-loose activity on this ENE aspect of Lone Tree around noon.

  • Wet Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Today is the day for wet slab avalanche potential. Over 48 hours of above-freezing temps in the upper elevations and the sun have created a saturated snowpack with meltwater flowing down into the snowpack layers. East, South, and West aspects have deeper saturation than shady aspects. Wet slab avalanches are some of the hardest avalanches to predict. We need to have sustained warm temps, and water moving through the snowpack to lube up and or breakdown the bonds between layers deeper in the snowpack that were some of the problems we checked off our list this season.  

    This just might be the right combination to see some wet slabs release under all of this heat and pressure. With the heat, our large cornices that are hanging off rocks are going to be likely triggers. Give them room over the next couple of days as they can break back farther than you would expect.

     

    (Saturday 4/3/2021) ESE aspect of Lone Tree had 1.5 Feet of saturation.

Avalanche Discussion

Yesterday, on Lone Tree, just south of Tamarack Resort, the snowpack had about a foot and a half of saturation on sunny aspects and 3-4 inches of saturation on northern aspects. Even though our temps are above freezing, we are getting thin crusts to form on the surface at night.  The Sun and the warm temps are going to be a concern today, but Sunday night a cold system enters our area, bringing back freezing temperatures each night next week, and a small amount of snow. It will definitely take a couple of days or more for the cold temps to re-freeze the saturated snowpack, especially if we put a couple inches of fresh cold snow on top to help insulate the wet snow.

Small wet avalanches in steep, complex terrain can be a serious threat and can be the trigger for deeper wet slab avalanches. 

Don't throw caution to the wind during LOW danger, stack the odds in your favor. A slope only needs to have an angle of 30 degrees to produce an avalanche...Check your aspect and slope angle regularly. Across the U. S. we have had 36 avalanche fatalities so far this year. It is always a good idea to travel on slopes steeper than 30 degrees one at a time. Make sure all of your partners are carrying first aid gear as well as an avalanche transceiver, probe, and shovel.

We will issue our last advisory for the season on Saturday, April 10th. We would like to thank everyone for their support and observations, and for staying safe during an especially dangerous winter!  

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