Avalanche forecast

Avalanche forecast

Payette Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
Out of date — this forecast expired 6 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

It is possible for skiers and riders to trigger an avalanche in the upper snowpack where 2-3 feet of snow lies above buried surface hoar, especially in wind sheltered terrain. Winds have been light and Variable, and occasionally Gusty which created shallow soft wind slabs in exposed and leeward upper elevation terrain that are not well bonded to the snow below them. Watch for signs of drifting and sculpting, and be cautious and or avoid steep wind loaded terrain just below cornices and ridgelines.

We got a report of 2 snowmobile triggered avalanches on West Mountain yesterday (Saturday) just South of Tamarack Resort. One was large enough to bury, injure, or kill a person. It didn't look like anyone was caught.

Utilize Good and safe travel techniques like spreading out, exposing only one person at a time to terrain steeper than 30 degrees, and keeping your eyes on your partners that should all be carrying a transceiver, shovel, and probe.

 

 

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–3

    Snomobilers on West Mountain, just South of Tamarack resort reported seeing 2 avalanches that appeared (one large enough to bury, injure, or kill a person). Both of the avalanches looked like they were triggered from snowmobiles. Its likely that the weak layer stayed preserved in the wind sheltered location. 

    The upper 3 feet of our snowpack holds the greatest threat right now, a layer of surface hoar formed on the surface, and now sits under 2-3 feet of snow. Protected Northerly terrain has preserved the crystals. Thin, and rocky areas of the snowpack may fail easier where you can put more stress on the weak layer. If you trigger the upper snowpack, the potential to get deeper old weak layers to step down and fail exists...this is why we should still not be choosing big terrain that could produce large avalanches as buried surface hoar is the common wild card that is responsible for many avalanche fatalities.

    Being extra cautious and bulding greater margins of errror like spreading out more than you normally would, and avoiding big steep slopes, and terrain traps are good practices with persistent weak layers that are hard to predict, and have serious consequences if triggered. 

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1

    Winds have been mostly calm to light but have gusted enough in the upper elevations to transport some of the soft snow on the surface. Bonding of recent wind slabs have been poor to not at all. 

    Avoid steep, (over 30 degrees) wind loaded terrain, especially slopes that are just below ridgelines and cornices, and terrain features that facilitate acceleration or concentration of wind effect.

    Large Cornices are starting to hang over most of our ridgelines and may be waiting for a person to make them fail. Stay far back from the edge of cornices, which might be hard to tell exactly where the edge really is at.  Cornices can break off much farther back than you might think and in a very quick instant!

     

    Shallow wind slabs failing on isolation Friday on a SW exposed ridge on Granite Mtn that were poorly bonded and showed no signs or cracking while hiking on skis.

Avalanche Discussion

Thank You to everyone that supported the Friends of the Payette Avalanche Center's Online fundraiser last night! The fundraiser was a great success and brought in $4,800.00. This will help the avalanche center and people in the community a lot!

Yesterday, we got a nice suprise of 6-8 inches of new snow in the montains. Tamarack Ski Patrol threw bombs and did not get any results, and didn't see much wind loading...Riders reported a couple of avalanches on West Mountain just South of Tamarack Resort  that appear to have been triggered from snowmobiles on a NE aspect where it is likely that our buried surface hoar weak layer was better preserved and more sensitive.    Being extra cautious right now is your best bet. The buried weak layers are called persistent weak layers and tend to do just that, persist for a little more time than humans want to wait. Where they remain is tough to assertain, which is why you need to keep your guard up, and utilize good travel practices, and choice of terrain is your easiest way of reducing your exposure. Larger sustained, exposed slopes have potential to create even larger avalanches, so choose smaller, lower angle slopes and enjoy the fresh powder. Slopes only need to be around 30 degrees to slide, or connected to steeper terrain.   Friday our neigbors to the South in the Sawtooth range had an avalanche fatality where a snowmobiler triggered a wind slab and was unable to survive the trauma. Our hearts are heavy for the loss of the rider.   If you see or trigger avalanche activity, please take the time to snap a picture and note the approximate elevation and aspect, you can submit an observation on our website. Getting your info helps forecasters and other users get a better picture of the conditions throughout our mountains. If you have trouble using our observations page, please email us at: [email protected]

 

Please be mindful of other users in the mountains, and where you are at. There are closures for motorized travel in and around the local ski areas, in the Lick Creek Canyon,  Granite Mtn, Jug Mountain, and other areas throughout our region.  Check out the Winter Travel Map to find out where you can shred on your sled or moto.  Not all of these areas are signed, it is your responsibility to know where these closures exist.