Avalanche forecast

Moab

Utah Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

  • Alpine
  • Treeline
  • Below treeline
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Out of date — this forecast expired 6 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

The avalanche danger remains CONSIDERABLE on steep slopes above treeline facing NW-NE-SE, and deep and dangerous human triggered avalanches failing on persistent weak layers are likely in these areas. Recent deposits of wind-drifted snow have added additional stress in these areas. Avalanches can be triggered from a distance and break wider and farther than expected. A MODERATE avalanche danger exists near treeline and below. Generally, LOW danger can be found on lowelevation, south-facing terrain.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2

    There isn't a lot of snow available for transport but winds have been patiently eroding westerly aspects and loading snow on to more easterly aspects near and above treeline. Cross-loading has also occurred on slopes facing NW-E-SE. Recent wind drifts are recognizable by their smooth rounded appearance and they may sound or feel hollow like a drum. Wind deposited snow will add additional stress to buried persistent weak layers and travel advice remains the same. Avoid slopes that appear to be wind-loaded, especially those with an easterly component to their aspect.

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2

    Persistent weak layers of weak, sugary, faceted snow are present on most aspects and elevations. On slopes facing NW-N-E-SE, slabs 1'-3' deep exist on top of these weak layers. While recent warm temperatures and time have helped the snowpack gain some strength, deep and dangerous, human triggered avalanches remain possible in these areas. The danger increases with elevation and human triggered avalanches remain likely above treeline, particularly on slopes with recent deposits of wind drifted snow. Soft and supportive snow conditions are present on wind-sheltered, northerly aspects. Stick to slopes less than 30 degrees and be aware of the terrain above you.

Special Announcement

We are filled with grief to report four fatalities from a skier triggered avalanche in the Wasatch Mountains on Saturday. All were well known members of the backcountry community. Here is the preliminary report. In a little over a week, there have been 15 avalanche fatalities across the U.S. Conditions are dangerous in most regions and ours is no exception. Please stay conservative in your terrain choices. The Geyser Pass Road is plowed. Conditions are snow-packed and icy and all-wheel drive is recommended.

The Lower Utah Nordic Alliance (LUNA) groomed all trails on Saturday.

Recent Activity

This was more of a surprise. This NNW aspect in Miners Basin had a couple of crowns. They probably ran sometime last week- after the snow that fell on 2/3/2021. The largest looks to be about 250' wide and to have run about 500' vertically. Hard to tell how deep these are, but maybe about 1'. It doesn't appear that they have been filled-in by recent wind.

Snow and Weather

24 Hour Snow 0" 72 Hour Snow 0" Base Depth in Gold Basin 38" Wind WSW 15 mph Temp 28F

Over the last 24 hours, westerly winds ranged from 15-20 mph and shifted to the SW overnight. Today, expect SW winds 15-25 mph with gusts to 35 mph. Skies will be mostly cloudy with high temps at 10,000' near 33 F. Zonal flow (westerly) overhead is delivering a weak system that will bring a chance for precipitation today and this evening. Radar indicates light precipitation bands over the La Sals as of this morning. Scattered rain and snow showers will result in the mountains receiving 1-2" of snow by tomorrow. Models suggest a series of systems beginning to impact the area starting Friday. Stay tuned.

NWS Weather Forecast.

Wind, temperature, humidity on Pre Laurel Peak (11,700')

Snotel site near Geyser Pass Trailhead (9600')

Storm totals at the Gold Basin study plot (10,000')

Snowpack Discussion

Wind and warm temperatures have created variable conditions but settled powder can still be found below treeline on sheltered northerly aspects. On sunny slopes, the snow surface has crusted over and coverage remains quite thin. Moderate westerly winds this week have scoured exposed, windward slopes while alternately loading leeward, easterly facing slopes. Cross loading has also occurred on slopes facing NW-N-E-SE. Observations from Sunday reported fresh drifts on some of these aspects and dangerous slabs 2'-3' deep are perched above the weak underlying snowpack. These slabs are growing more stubborn by the day BUT, don't be fooled by the absence of cracking and collapsing. Although these obvious warning signs are becoming less frequent, the underlying poor-snowpack structure may still produce large and destructive avalanches.

On Sunday 2/7/201, Eric Trenbeath and Dave Garcia gleaned this observation. Travis Nauman and Kelly Quinn sent in this observation as well. Yesterday, Charlie Ramser provided this observation and I did another flyover of the La Sal mountains yesterday:

Northeast aspect below treeline. (South Mtn. Glades). Low snow-cover prevails.

South aspect of Mt. Peale. Note wind-loaded SE and E aspects in the drainage.

Upper Dark Canyon, with MT. Mellenthin and Laurel Peak on the right. No surprise here, but good verification to see wind-swept ridges and wind-loaded N-NE-E aspects.

General Announcements

This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

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