Avalanche forecast

Sawtooth & Western Smoky Mtns

Sawtooth Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Tue
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 7 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Wind slabs that formed during and after last week’s storms remain a problem. You’re most likely to encounter a sensitive slab in upper elevation terrain, particularly where they are resting on hard, icy surfaces. Triggering an avalanche on deeply buried weak layers is unlikely, but not out of the realm of possibility. Keep this problem in mind, particularly when traveling in steep, rocky, wind affected terrain.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Around a foot of snow fell in the Sawtooths and Western Smokys during the trickle of storms last week. Throughout these storms, moderate to strong winds blew from a variety of directions, creating a patchwork of wind slabs in upper elevation terrain. During the final day of snowfall (Saturday), wind speeds dropped dramatically, leaving a nice blanket of low density snow on top of these slabs. Yesterday, as I traveled through upper elevation terrain in the Sawtooths, I found that this blanket made it challenging to predict the distribution of older slabs. 

    Overnight, wind speeds picked up a bit, transporting some of the snow that fell at the end of the storm. These slabs are likely to be a bit touchier than the older generations of slabs, but they will likely be relatively small. Older, stiffer slabs underneath will be less sensitive to your weight, but the resulting slides will be larger. Expect to find these slabs in upper elevation terrain, near features that slow the wind down and force it to drop the load that it is carrying.

    ADDITIONAL DISCUSSIONYesterday, I was able to intentionaly trigger a small wet snow sluff in steep, rocky terrain in this zone. Cloud cover should be more widespread today, but temperatures will be a bit warmer so this problem could rear its head again. Be on the lookout for the snow surface becoming wet on very steep, rocky slopes that directly face the sun.

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    2–3

    Triggering a 4-6 foot thick persistent slab avalanche is becoming increasingly unlikely. The weak layers we've struggled with all winter have not gone away, but they've become less reactive to the weight of a skier or rider. Due to their depth, they've also become very difficult to impact with your weight. Hard to trigger is not the same as impossible—you'll do well to keep them in mind and continue to factor them into your decision-making. It would take a dose of very bad luck, but it may be possible to trigger an unsurvivable avalanche in very steep (over 35 degrees), alpine terrain that is more likely to have thin spots where your weight may reach the weak layers.

Avalanche Discussion

Yesterday, Chris did a good job highlighting the variability in snowpack character that exist throughout our advisory zones. I’d recommend clicking this link and scrolling down to read his Forecast Discussion to see what he had to say. 

The weather may change quickly, but the types of problems that we are dealing with in our snowpack don’t. Today will be another beautiful day in the mountains; sunshine and soft snow most everywhere you look. But don’t let the picture perfect weather lull you into thinking that the snowpack is perfect too. Hidden under the new snow that fell last week and into the weekend (sorry good people of the WRV), are weak layers of snow that should be keeping you on your toes. 

Yesterday, an experienced backcountry traveler relayed his experience in an observation that is worth reading. Although his group had hoped to enter more consequential avalanche terrain, they didn’t let their desire distract them from the hazards posed by the snowpack. After some snowpack research (hand pits and snowpack tests) and thoughtful consideration of the season’s snowpack history, they decided to reset their objective to something a bit less ambitious and were rewarded with great skiing in the sun. Remember, you can’t go riding tomorrow if you don’t come home safely tonight.

Regions covered