Intense sun exposure will maintain the potential for large destructive avalanches. Conservative terrain choices with low overhead exposure are essential.
Confidence
Moderate - Freezing levels are uncertain on Wednesday
Weather Forecast
TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY: Mainly sunny and dry with isolated valley cloud dissipating throughout the day. Freezing levels reaching 1500m and light variable winds. THURSDAY: Mainly sunny and dry with isolated valley cloud dissipating throughout the day. A temperature inversion is expected to result in above freezing temperatures well into alpine elevations Winds should remain generally light from the south.
Avalanche Summary
Reports from Sunday include a natural Size 2 persistent slab avalanche and a Size 2.5 cornice failure. Several Size 1 skier-triggered wind slabs were also reported and explosives control produced slab avalanches up to Size 3. On Saturday one person was killed and another was hospitalized in a large avalanche in the Quartz Creek area west of Golden. This size 3 snowmobile-triggered slab avalanche occurred on a S-SW aspect in the alpine and is suspected to have released on the Feb. 12 interface.
Snowpack Summary
20-30 cm of snow in the past few days has added to the recent storm slab bonding reasonably well to a crust 40-60 cm below the surface, that was buried on February 12th. However, in isolated areas (such as shady sheltered treeline slopes) there may be a weak layer of surface hoar at the storm snow/crust interface that is touchy to human triggers and may result in wide propagations. The early January surface hoar/ facet layer is typically down 70-120 cm. Avalanche activity at this interface has tapered-off over the past week, but I'd be reluctant to trust this potentially destructive layer just yet. In general, the lower snowpack is well settled and strong, apart from some thin snowpack areas where basal facets exist.
Problems
Persistent Slabs
Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.
Wind Slabs
Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Cornices
Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.