Avalanche forecast

Presidential Range

Mount Washington Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
1 · Low
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Avalanche hazard will decline as temperatures drop steadily through the day at all elevations. Until the snow refreezes, free water flowing in the snowpack will weaken bonds contributing to wet snow avalanche problems. The avalanche problems will vary by terrain and temperature so evaluate the snow and weather conditions carefully today. Though the snowpack has had a few days to settle, you may still find the upside-down snow structure that signals a potential problem. Wet snow over softer, drier snow is your cue to re-evaluate your route. Human triggered wet avalanches are possible in warm locations. Wet loose sluffs could trigger a larger avalanche in isolated areas. Steep, refrozen snow surfaces will develop a significant long, sliding fall hazard as the temperature drops.

The Winter Lion Head Route is the most direct route to climb to the summit from Pinkham Notch. The Tuckerman Ravine trail through the Bowl, and the Lion Head Summer Trail are much more exposed to fall hazards and pass through avalanche terrain.

Avalanche problems

  • Wet Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1–2

    Continued warming this morning will weaken the snowpack further and create the potential for larger wet slab avalanches to occur. Buried ice crusts or slabs of rock and ice are the most likely areas to see this sort of activity. These avalanches could occur naturally or with a human trigger and are more likely to remain on the smaller side. Wet avalanches can pack a punch due to the density of the flowing debris.

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1

    Melting snow will continue to loosen bonds and weaken snow as it percolates through the snowpack. Refreezing will stop this process, most likely by mid-day in ravines in the middle elevation band. These point release slides could trigger a larger and more dangerous wet slab in isolated locations, particularly on rock or ice slabs.

Avalanche Discussion

The snowpack at Hermit Lake settled almost 6 inches in the past 3 days. Settlement is a necessary step prior to the snowpack gaining strength but is an indicator of rapid changes occurring in the snow. Snow doesn’t like rapid changes, especially with deeper weak layers lurking. Any weak layers or weak bed surface interfaces over rock and ice slabs will be tested again today at lower, warmer elevations. This period of warming and refreezing will pay dividends for improved stability and ultimately a good corn snow cycle but not until passing through this warming stage.

Looking ahead to the weekend, plan on seeking out whatever lower elevation slopes have a favorable aspect and elevation to warm up. Temperatures will drop below freezing at all elevations overnight with summit high temperatures in the single digits though the weekend. Lower elevations will be close enough the freezing that solar gain should soften snow surfaces.

The Winter Lion Head Route is the most direct route to climb to the summit from Pinkham Notch. The Tuckerman Ravine trail through the Bowl, and the Lion Head Summer Trail are much more exposed to fall hazards and also pass through avalanche terrain.

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Listen to the weekly MWAC Outreach Podcast provided by Ski The Whites. Discussions include snowpack information, weekend outlook, and general avalanche related info. 

Our next free online event is coming up Thursday, March 18 @ 7PM -Women’s Backcountry Talk- A Free Zoom Webinar. Signup is required. 

The Harvard Cabin is open for camping only with no entry allowed inside the cabin. There is no access to the breezeway at HoJos.

Please Remember:

  • Safe travel in avalanche terrain requires training and experience. This forecast is just one tool to help you make your own decisions in avalanche terrain. You control your own risk by choosing where, when, and how you travel.
  • Avalanche danger may change when actual weather differs from the higher summits forecast.

For more information contact the US Forest Service Snow Rangers, AMC visitor services staff at the Pinkham Notch Visitor Center, or the caretakers at Hermit Lake Shelters or seasonally at the Harvard Cabin (generally December 1 through March 31). The Mount Washington Ski Patrol is also available on spring weekends.

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