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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 23rd, 2012–Jan 24th, 2012

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

Purcells.

Confidence

Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather is uncertain on Tuesday

Weather Forecast

A strong westerly flow is setting up for Tuesday with average seasonal temps. The big story is the wind. Winds are forecasted to be out of the W in excess of 100 km/h at ridgetop all day Tuesday. Precipitation will begin to fall Tuesday afternoon continuing into the night, there should be 15 - 20 cm of new snow out of this pulse by Wednesday morning. A second system of lesser intensity moves through the area Wednesday/Thursday producing around 10 cm of snow. Thursday afternoon and Friday look to be generally dry.

Avalanche Summary

Explosive work in the region Sunday produced avalanches to size 3. The bulk of this activity was on slopes facing E and N. Observers noted a widespread cycle in the storm snow affecting both the alpine & treeline elevation bands over the weekend on all aspects.

Snowpack Summary

The Purcell's are currently quite variable in terms of snowpack. 20 - 40 cm of new snow fell out of the weekend storm & this snow sits on the previous snow surface which consisted of loose dry snow in sheltered areas and old wind slab in exposed areas. Irregular winds out of the SE during the storm created slabs in unusual locations. The mid-December surface hoar/facet persistent weakness, now down around 55cm on the eastern side of the range and as deep as 190cm on the western side, is still causing operators concern, especially in shallow snowpack areas. Recent snowpack tests show moderate to hard, sudden planar results on this layer. The consequences of a failure on this layer would be large. Facets and depth hoar exist at the base of the snowpack. Cornices are large and weak in some areas.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.