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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 15th, 2018–Mar 16th, 2018

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Kananaskis.

Warm temps, recent new snow (up to 30cm) and light winds are increasing the avalanche danger.  This new snow will take a few days to stabilize.

Confidence

High -

Weather Forecast

Another 5-8cm of snow is forecast to fall overnight adding to the 20-25cm that we received throughout the day on Thursday.  Warm temps will promote fast settlement of the new snow.  Skies are forecast to be overcast but we may see the sun poke out from time to time.  Winds are likely to be moderate out of the NW tonight before becomming more calm on Friday.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches were observed on Thursday but visibilty was extremely limited.

Snowpack Summary

Well the forecasted storm did arrive giving us close to 25cm at treeline and above.  The storm came in warm and as a result the snow has been quick to settle and so far appears to be bonding poorly to the underlying snow surface.  Storm slabs should be expected while the snow settles that will be reactive to human traffic in steeper areas.  Winds are forecast to be calm, but we expect there to be some isolated windslabs in alpine areas along ridgelines.  This new snow will freshen up the skiing but the key layer to watch will be the bond with the underlying snow surface.  Move into bigger terrain slowly and evaluate this layer before committing to terrain.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.