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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 17th, 2018–Feb 18th, 2018

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Kootenay Boundary.

Fresh storm slabs will be reactive to human-triggers, especially in wind-affected terrain. Watch for signs of unstable snow such as whumpfs and cracks.

Confidence

Moderate -

Weather Forecast

SUNDAY: Lingering flurries in the morning with 3-8 cm of new snow followed by clearing and cooling as Arctic air pushed into the region, moderate northeast wind, alpine high temperatures around -18 C.MONDAY: Mix of sun and cloud, light northeast wind, alpine high temperatures around -18 C.TUESDAY: Mix of sun and cloud, light north wind, alpine high temperatures around -18 C.

Avalanche Summary

On Saturday, widespread natural avalanche activity was reported. Storm slabs were generally soft and thin (20-30 cm), but had wide propagations and ran far distances. Ski cutting and explosives produced similar avalanches. Similar activity in the storm snow was also reported on Friday.Last weekend, three large persistent slab avalanches (size 3) were reported on northeast aspects in the Valhallas. Two were triggered with explosive and the third was naturally triggered. Natural activity on deeply buried weak layers has wound down, but human triggering remains a concern.

Snowpack Summary

Saturday's storm delivered 20-40 cm of low density snow, except for pockets with soft slabs in exposed terrain. A total of 30-50 cm of snow sits above an interface that could favour wide propagations once the snow settles. The interfaces include sun crusts on steep south-facing slopes, a rain crust below 1800 m and small surface hoar in isolated areas.We now have 1-2 m of settled snow sitting on three significant surface hoar/crust layers that were formed early to mid-January, and back in December. Near the base of the snowpack a crust/facet interface exists that will likely haunt us all season. These layers produced large destructive avalanches on a regular basis up until last weekend. Avalanche activity on these layers has gradually diminished, but the persistent slab problem still demands respect and diligence.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.