Avalanche Forecast

Light to occasionally moderate precipitation near the Cascade crest, increasing crest level west winds, and a rising snow line will increase the avalanche danger on Sunday at all elevations. 

Loose wet avalanches will become more likely to trigger in areas and elevations that see a switch from snow to rain Sunday. You will be able to trigger loose wet avalanches on steeper slopes during and immediately following rain events. Avoid slopes where small avalanches may have large consequences such as above cliffs, rocks, creeks, and gullies.

Moderate to strong winds will continue to form fresh wind slabs on a variety of aspects above treeline. Fresh cornices, snow drifts, plumes, and blowing snow all indicate where wind slabs are forming. Fresh wind slabs will be increasing in size and sensitivity Sunday.

Large cornices exists along ridgelines. Warming temperatures and rain will make these massive blocks of snow more likely to fail. It is very difficult to predict when and where cornices will fall. Avoid traveling on or below cornices.

The avalanche hazard will be lower in areas receiving less precipitation further east of the crest.

Moderate to strong westerly winds at crest level mixed warm temperatures down to valley floor along the east slopes of the Cascades on Saturday, with valley or lower elevation sites such as Lake Wentachee, Tumwater and Mazama popping up to near or above 50 degrees. The freezing level hovered around 5500 feet in the northeast Cascades, increasing to 6000-7000 feet further south and east. Light precipitation noted near the Cascade crest quickly diminished further east. Wet snow conditions were noted near and below treeline along the Hwy 20 corridor. Continued snowpack settlement was also noted in these elevation bands at NWAC and Snotel sites. 

8" of new snow was reported in the Washington Pass area Friday while for areas south of Holden, rain fell up to about 6000 feet. Very touchy wind slabs formed and developed in the Washington Pass area Friday and again Saturday near and especially above treeline.

A natural avalanche cycle has been reported in many areas from Monday’s (1/29) warm and wet weather. Rain occurred along the east slopes as far north as Holden, WA.

Scattered observations from the last week of January found buried surface hoar on top of the 1/16 crust. This persistent weak layer was found or thought to be the cause of several avalanches. Extra caution should be taken when traveling in areas further east of the crest where this layer may survive. Snow profiles and snowpack tests are the only means to identify and locate this layer.

Observations

North

On Saturday, a professional in the Washington Pass area reported about 6" of new snowfall over the preceding 24 hours. Very touchy wind slabs were present near and especially above treeline with moderate to strong W-SW winds transporting new and recent snow onto lee slopes. Storm slabs were generally unlikely to trigger. Moist surface snow conditions were present below 5800'. The 1/16 crust was 4 to 5 feet down. Similar conditions were reported Friday in this area. 

Central

An avalanche professional traveling in Icicle Creek Thursday found 6-8” of settled snow well bonded to the 1/29 crust. Observations demonstrated a strong upper snowpack. No buried surface hoar was found in this location.

On Tuesday, Mission Ridge Pro Patrol identified several layers of concern in this regionally shallower snowpack. These layers should be watched during future loading events. Similar basal weak layers were found in the nearby shallow snowpack of Blewett Pass.

South

No recent observations