Avalanche Forecast

 A very strong storm arrives in the early morning hours Thursday, reaching peak intensity in the middle of the day. Heavy snowfall and very strong winds with a warming trend will build unstable snow layers in most steep terrain. 

The new heavy storm snow will load existing shallow 4-8 inches of low density snow that has fallen over the past few days. Strong crust layers below will act as smooth sliding surfaces to allow avalanches to run long distances. 

Expect whiteout and dangerous avalanche conditions Thursday. Best to travel in terrain well away from avalanche paths or slopes connected to steep open slopes above.

There have been about 4-6" of recent snow since Sunday. The underlying snow is very strong and has formed a supportable crust following last weeks warm temperatures to high elevations.  The shallow, weak surface snow should not support the expected heavy snowfall by Thursday.

A strong crust layer below the shallow recent snow may act as a good bed surface for future avalanches.  

The greatest potential for increased avalanche activity will be in areas that have a deeper consistent snowcover.

The height of snow across the terrain is quite variable. Many areas have little to no snowcover, even in higher terrain, where wind, rain and warm temperatures have stripped much of the season's snowfall. Numerous obstacles still exist at all elevations.

Observations

NPS rangers reported about 3 inches of new snow as of Tuesday morning.  

NPS rangers Sunday morning reported snowfall on the drive up to Hurricane Ridge had begun to mix with ice pellets by 8 am Sunday morning. Temperatures stayed below freezing at Hurricane Ridge on Sunday with continuous light precipitation and gusty south winds.