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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 6th, 2018–Jan 7th, 2018

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Olympics.

Small loose wet avalanches are possible as snow changes to rain on Sunday. Take care in steep extreme terrain exposed to terrain traps. Shallow storm or wind slabs are unlikely to develop in the Hurricane Ridge area Sunday but are possible in other parts of the Olympics. Early season hazards still exist. 

Detailed Forecast

Light snow should begin Sunday morning with precipitation increasing in the afternoon, becoming locally moderate for the south facing slopes of the Olympics. Hurricane Ridge will be relatively rain-shadowed compared to the rest of the range, receiving a few inches of fresh snow before changing to rain by late morning or mid-day Sunday. 

Small loose wet avalanches are possible as snow changes to rain on Sunday. Take care in steep extreme terrain exposed to terrain traps.  

Shallow storm or wind slabs are unlikely to develop in the Hurricane Ridge area Sunday but are possible in other parts of the Olympics. 

Early season hazards still exist. Many creek beds have still not filled in for the winter.

Snowpack Discussion

Light rain Friday did little to change the overall strong snowpack in the Hurricane Ridge area. Saturday saw a cooling trend but only a trace of new snow in the Hurricane Ridge area. 

A strong and well settled snowpack exists throughout the area. Several days of above freezing temperatures in the Olympics has allowed any lingering shallow wind slabs to gain strength.

Layers can still be found in the upper snowpack, but current conditions and observations do not suggest that any of these layers will be of concern.

The height of snow across the terrain is quite variable. Numerous obstacles still exist at all elevations.

Observations

NWAC Pro Observer Matt Schonwald was at Hurricane Ridge Thursday, January 3rd. Matt reported a lack of surface crust in the area due to several days of above freezing temperatures and cloud cover. Travel conditions were reportedly quite good. Observations showed a strong and well bonded snowpack which was unlikely to be affected by the rain Friday. Matt noted the highly variable snow cover with snow heights changing as much as 50% in some places within just a few feet away.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.