Avalanche forecast

Moab

Utah Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

  • Alpine
  • Treeline
  • Below treeline
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Out of date — this forecast expired 7 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Overall, the avalanche danger is MODERATE,and human triggered avalanches involving wind drifted snow, and buried, persistent weak layers, are possible. The greatest likelihood for triggering an avalanche exists on steep, wind drifted, slopes, right around treeline and above, that face NW-NE-E. Thegreatest danger for avalanches involving buried persistent weak layers also exists on steep, northerly facing terrain, especially on rocky, radical, or sparsely treed slopes where the snowpack is shallow and weak. Slide paths that have already run, and then filled back in are also suspect.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2

    Continuous, moderate to strong SW winds have likely managed to etch through crusted over south faces, and drift snow on to northerly aspects. Most of theses recent wind slabs will be stiff, and shallow, but if you triggered one in the high country it could take you for a ride. Older, deeper drifts still exist on northerly aspects as well, and though most are now welded in to place, give pause to any steep slope that has a smooth rounded appearance and consider the consequences. A triggered deep wind drift also has the potential to step down into a buried persistent weak layer causing a deeper and more dangerous avalanche.

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    4

    Natural avalanche activity from the last storm cycle, as well as a remotely triggered avalanche last week, demonstrate that a dangerous persistent weak layer problem still exists. The problem is becoming less widespread, but that perhaps makes it more insidious. Areas with a shallower snowpack are the most suspect and this includes slopes that have already avalanched, or that have been previously wind scoured. Steep, rocky slopes facing N-NE-E have been the most active, but weak snow and poor test results are still being encountered on SE facing slopes. Careful snow stability analysis is essential, and the bottom line is that local observers and I are going to continue to avoid slopes steeper than 35 degrees, especially those with a northerly aspect.

Special Announcement

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Snow and Weather

Skies are cloudy, southwesterly ridge top winds continue to blow in the 20 mph range with gusting to 30, and 10,000' temps are in the mid 20's. An active weather pattern is shaping up for the West but it appears as if most of the action is going to stay to the north. We'll see mostly cloudy skies and scattered showers over the course of the next few days but with only an inch or two of accumulation. SW winds will continue to blow in the moderate to strong range. Our best chance for snow will come on Saturday night.

The glory days of last weekend are gone and the snow surface is getting a bit tired after several days of wind and warm temperatures. Look to wind sheltered, northerly facing terrain for soft snow.

New snow totals in Gold Basin (10,000')

Snotel totals at the Geyser Pass Trailhead (9600') y

Wind, temperature, and humidity on Pre Laurel Peak (11,700')

National Weather Service point forecast.

Additional Info

Check out this clip of local Moab sledders playing it safe and making sure their beacons are on at the Geyser Pass Trailhead.

General Announcements

Your information can save lives. If you see anything we should know about, please help us out by submitting snow and avalanche observations HERE. You can also call me at 801-647-8896, or send me an email: [email protected].

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This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

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