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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 21st, 2013–Dec 22nd, 2013

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

Cariboos.

Confidence

Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain on Sunday

Weather Forecast

Synopsis: The pattern switches to a more characteristic SW flow over the next 24 hours which will open the door to some decent snow accumulations. Freezing levels rise to around 1000m, but the upper elevations should do quite well with regard to snowfall.Sunday: Freezing Level: 700m; Precip: 4/8mm - 8/15cm Wind: Lht gusting Strong SouthSunday Night: Freezing Level: Rising to 1000m Precip: 13/18mm - 20/30cm Monday: Freezing Level: 1200m Precip: 2/4mm - 4/8cm Wind: Mod/Strong, W Tuesday: Freezing Level: Valley Bottom Precip: Nil Wind: Lht SW

Avalanche Summary

A few natural size 2 avalanches were observed Friday on a north facing slope with a shallow snowpack.

Snowpack Summary

Snowpack depths at Treeline are between 75 - 120cm. Alpine depths vary between 100 - 180cm. We're dealing with a complex snowpack in the Cariboo Mountains at this time. See this video for a great visual.The upper snowpack contains storm snow, wind slabs, surface hoar, and facets. Previously warm temps and as much as 85cm of new snow have combined to form a cohesive slab on top of the November 28 surface hoar and facets. Snowpack tests are showing Sudden Planar results on this layer with medium loads which indicates the potential for human triggering. There's not a whole lot of snow between riders and sugary snow (facets) near the base of the snowpack. In some places this crust facet combo is failing naturally. As a result you'll notice that there is a Persistent Slab problem on the front page. Human triggering of large destructive avalanches is possible at this time.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.