Avalanche forecast

Aoraki/Mt Cook

New Zealand Avalanche Advisory
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Avalanche danger

High Alpine · above 2,000 m
2 · Moderate
Alpine · 1,500 m–2,000 m
2 · Moderate
Sub Alpine · below 1,500 m
1 · Low
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Highlights

Shallow wind and storm slab may build about Northerly aspects as a SE front brushes the region.

Remain wary with the hard crust lurking below 2000m, and potentially under a thin coating of new snow.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • All elevations
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1

    Up to 5-10cm of new snow is expected. Cold SE winds will load northerly aspects. While not a lot of snow, drifts of up to 30cm may be encountered near ridge crest. This may sit on a firm or hard crust which may provide a good bedsurface. Take care about northfacing terrain, watch for cracking in the storm snow and be prepared to back off if you dont like what you are seeing.

  • Loose Dry

    • All elevations
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1

    Loose dry avalanches may be running in storm snow, especially as the sun begins to warm the snow. This will transition to loose wet avalanching as the day warms.

Recent Avalanche Activity

A widespread cycle of wet loose and slab avalanching up to size 3 has been observed after the heavy snow and rain over night on the 12th. Slab avalanching was mainly around south and east aspects and limited to the storm snow. There was an outlier observation of a much deeper slab on steep unsupported ground high on Mt Darwin NW aspect at 2700m.

Current Snowpack Conditions

Overnight Wednesday up to 60cm of new snow fell above around 2000m on the Divide with lesser amounts to the east. 30-50mm of rain fell below this forming a strong, slick crust. Shallow snowfall can be expected to be covering the crust as a very cold but mostly dry southerly runs through the region. If we are lucky we could get 5-10cm in eastern terrain with snow down to around 500m potentially. Shallow wind and storm slab is expected to develop about aspects facing north.

The mid and lower snowpack is generally strong.

Mountain Weather

Forecast

Morning cloud clearing to fine.

Wind at 1000 metres

Southeasterly 50 km/h, rising to gale 70 km/h in exposed places in the morning, then easing back to 40 km/h everywhere in the evening.

Wind at 2000 metres

Southeasterly 60 km/h, rising to gale 80 km/h in the morning, then easing to 40 km/h everywhere in the evening.

Wind at 3000 metres

Southerly 30 km/h, rising to 60 km/h in the afternoon.

Freezing level

700 metres, rising to 1000 metres in the afternoon.

Sliding Danger

Crampons and ice axe are essential at the moment for alpine travel. There is a real slide risk below 2000m. The crust may be hidden under thin fresh snow.

Forecast Confidence

Moderate

  • The snowpack structure is well understood.
  • We are uncertain about forecast snowfall amounts.

New Zealand Avalanche Advisory (NZ Mountain Safety Council)

Regions covered