Avalanche forecast

Aoraki/Mt Cook

New Zealand Avalanche Advisory
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Avalanche danger

High Alpine · above 2,000 m
2 · Moderate
Alpine · 1,500 m–2,000 m
2 · Moderate
Sub Alpine · below 1,500 m
1 · Low
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Highlights

A storm is approaching on Wednesday, and increasing winds may build windslab. Watch for blowing and wind deposited snow.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • All elevations
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1.5

    Increasing winds on Wednesday will transport loose snow and build small wind slabs in sheltered areas near ridgeline on northeast, east and south facing slopes.

    At the moment, only around 10-15cm small amount of snow is forecast to fall around the Divide on Wednesday, with less out east, so these wind slabs will mostly come from existing snow that's blown around. If the storm brings more snow earlier than expected these slabs could be larger and more destructive.

  • Loose Wet

    • All elevations
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1

    A small amount of rain is forecast below around 2000m on Wednesday, with freezing levels lowering in the afternoon. This could kick off a loose wet avalanche cycle on steep terrain below 2000m, especially on shady slopes where the snow is still dry and unconsolidated.

Recent Avalanche Activity

A handful of small (size 1) loose wet avalanches have run on sunny slopes since the weekend.

Current Snowpack Conditions

Around 100cm of new snow has fallen about the Divide since late Thursday and into Friday with 50cm at Mueller hut (1800m elevation), and around 60cm in the Liebig range, around 40cm in the Cass, and 20-30cm in the southern Gammacks above around 1000m. This snow is generally well settled and has dried out on shady slopes after several cold nights, with areas of surface hoar and near surface facets developing. The previous snow surface was a mix of rain crust below 1800m, and wind scoured surfaces in exposed areas and windpressed snow in sheltered areas above 1800m. The lower snowpack is generally well bonded with no major layers of concern.

Mountain Weather

Showers developing before dawn, some heavy from afternoon with snow to 1500 metres.

Wind at 1000 metres: Northwesterly 45 km/h, rising to gale 65 km/h in the evening.

Wind at 2000 metres: Northwesterly 45 km/h, rising to gale 65 km/h in the morning, and to severe gale 95 km/h at night.

Wind at 3000 metres: Northwesterly 40 km/h, rising to gale 65 km/h in the morning.

Freezing level: 2100 metres, lowering to 1800 metres before dawn.

Sliding Danger

Most slick surfaces have been covered with new snow, but an ice axe and crampons are recommended for travel above 2500m.

Forecast Confidence

Moderate

  • The snowpack structure is well understood.
  • We are uncertain about forecast precipitation amounts.
  • We are uncertain due to the timing of the incoming weather system.

New Zealand Avalanche Advisory (NZ Mountain Safety Council)

Regions covered