Avalanche forecast

Queenstown

New Zealand Avalanche Advisory
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Avalanche danger

High Alpine · above 1,800 m
4 · High
Alpine · 1,200 m–1,800 m
3 · Considerable
Sub Alpine · below 1,200 m
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Poor visibility, poor snowpack strength. Gale strength winds, blizzard conditions before the rain turns it all to wet cement. Yeah, nah...movie day !

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • All elevations
    Likelihood
    Very Likely
    Size
    2

    Winds at severe gale strength from the northern half. Snow has been wet and has been redistributed. More snow is forecast this morning. A complex and scary snowpack. The pack is complex and very changeable. Add to this elevation and a varying freezing levels. This situation will not resolve overnight.

  • Loose Wet

    • All elevations
    Likelihood
    Very Likely
    Size
    1.5

    Rain will be heavy this afternoon, expect a saturated pack. Weak layers will become lubricated and overloaded. Keep well clear of avalanche run-out zones. There will be an increase in things like shedding, roller balling and pin wheeling. It is expected rain and snow will combine to become a real issue.

  • Wet Slabs

    • All elevations
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2

    We know there are buried weak layers within the pack. We also know the pack is weak and saturated to ground. The combination is ripe for an increase in wet slab releases. Expect to see cracks or buckling of the snowpack. AVOID. Don't get tangled up with these monsters.

Recent Avalanche Activity

Limited backcountry information. From local ski fields we have multiple reports of natural and skier triggered loose wet avalanches. Sizes have varied from .5 to 1.5, we can assume there is a widespread avalanche cycle ongoing at present.

Current Snowpack Conditions

We are still in the middle of what is a 4-day storm. Heavy snow, especially this morning then turning to rain below 2000 m this afternoon. The current snowpack has had a major soaking to around 2200 m. This morning we see gale strength winds, increasing to 120 kph after lunch. As temperatures rise the snow will become moist. The added weight will be stressing weak areas and adding tension. Another day of loose wet activity, rafting, pin wheeling and roller-balling. With the possibility of a rotten (isothermic) snowpack looming, you get the picture !

Mountain Weather

Heavy snow this morning, turning to rain this afternoon with the freezing level rising to 2000 m. Winds ramp up to severe gale strength later today.

Sliding Danger

Not at present, a sliding hazard will be return to a mountain near you shortly !

Forecast Confidence

Moderate

  • We are uncertain due to variable freezing levels.
  • We are uncertain due to a highly variable snowpack.
  • We are uncertain about how quickly the snowpack will recover and gain strength.

New Zealand Avalanche Advisory (NZ Mountain Safety Council)

Regions covered