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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 9th, 2018–Jan 10th, 2018

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

Glacier.

Avalanches have the potential to run full path today. Group management is paramount, keep an eye out for other groups above or below you, and always watch your buddy!

Weather Forecast

Another 5-10cm is forecasted today, with an alpine high of -4 degrees and the freezing levels could reach 1600m. Winds are currently light but expected to kick up around noon as a cold front passes over Rogers Pass. Precipitation could taper off tomorrow and temps will cool as an Alberta-high pressure system battles it's way from the North East.

Snowpack Summary

40cm of storm snow now buries the Jan 4 interface and the Dec 15 surface hoar (PWL) is down ~70cm. Yesterday we reached the tipping point of storm snow over weak layers. Snowpack tests showed propagation potential and a high likelihood for skier triggering. The Dec 15th Surface Hoar layer is most reactive at tree line and below.

Avalanche Summary

Natural slab avalanche cycle to size 3 yesterday in the Highway Corridor stopping in the fan. Skier accidental size 2, failing on the Dec 15th PWL in the Asulkan drainage. 1 full burial party self-extricated. Several skier controlled avalanches to size 1.5 reported from the backcountry and skier remotes from 10m away, failing on the Jan 4 layer.

Confidence

Due to the number and quality of field observations

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.