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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 5th, 2018–Jan 6th, 2018

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Cariboos.

A weak layer is buried at a depth prime to human triggering, particularly in the south of the region. As the overlying snow forms a slab from new snowfall and warmer air, destructive avalanches will likely result. Cautious route finding is advised.

Confidence

Moderate - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain

Weather Forecast

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy with light flurries, accumulation 5-10 cm, light to moderate southwesterly winds, freezing level near valley bottom.SUNDAY: Cloudy with light flurries, accumulation 1 to 3 cm, light to moderate southwesterly winds, freezing level near valley bottom.MONDAY: Cloudy with light flurries, accumulation 5-10 cm, light southwesterly winds, freezing level near 1000 m.

Avalanche Summary

Numerous small loose avalanches have been reported in the region over the past few days. Slab avalanches are becoming more likely as the upper snowpack begins to settle with warm temperatures and forecasted new snow.

Snowpack Summary

A warming trend and additional snow could create a dangerous slab above buried weak layers. Numerous persistent weak layers exist in the snowpack. Dry snow overlies two layers composed of weak and feathery surface hoar, with the deeper layer (December 15) buried 30 to 60 cm. This layer is shallower in the north of the region and deeper in the south of the region. The weak layer is found most often at treeline and below treeline. If the dry snow becomes more cohesive and forms a slab, this layer has the potential to create easily-triggerable destructive slab avalanches.The new snow is falling on variable surfaces, including surface hoar in sheltered slopes, a sun crust on steep solar aspects, and wind effect in exposed alpine and treeline locations.Deeper in the snowpack at depths of about 70 to 100 cm, a rain crust from November is producing variable snowpack test results, from sudden fracture characters to no result. This layer is considered dormant for now, but could be triggered where the snowpack is thin.If you have any recent observations, please share them through the Mountain Information Network.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Loose Dry

Loose Dry avalanches are the release of dry unconsolidated snow and typically occur within layers of soft snow near the surface of the snowpack. These avalanches start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-dry avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs.