We seem to be near the tipping point for increased avalanche activity. Make conservative terrain choices.
Weather Forecast
Saturday will be cloudy with sunny periods and isolated flurries. Alpine temperature are expected to reach a high of -11 °C. Ridge top winds will be out of the southwest at 45 km/h. The pattern remains for the next few days.
Avalanche Summary
A few new size 2 slab avalanches were observed in the past 48hrs. These avalanches occurred in steeper Treeline areas failing down 30-40cm. In addition a few small loose dry avalanches occurred today in steep Alpine and Treeline terrain.
Snowpack Summary
A few cm's of new snow overnight has added to the recent 20cm over the past few days. Winds have been strong during the snowfalls, which has created extensive wind slabs in the Alpine and open areas at Treeline. At 2250m and below there are now 3 layers of buried surface hoar, which is very unusual for the Rockies. These are referred to as the Jan 18th, Jan 6th and Dec 15th surface hoar layers, down 25, 50 and 100cm respectively. Snowpack stability tests today indicate that all these layers are reactive, with the Jan 6th and Dec 15th layers the most concerning as there is now sufficient overlying slab to be an avalanche problem. The November crust layers are still on our radar, but still do not appear to be reactive. The question is when these layers will become a problem.....
Problems
Wind Slabs
Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Persistent Slabs
Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.