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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 31st, 2018–Feb 1st, 2018

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

Glacier.

Non persistent weak layers in the recent storm snow need time to settle out. Deeper persistent weak layers need to be kept in mind in your terrain choices.

Weather Forecast

Cloudy with sunny periods, convective flurries, alpine highs of -12C and light to low end of moderate westerly wind. Thursday we should see slowly warming temperatures, light precipitation and moderate SW wind at ridge top. Friday the next Pacific storm moves in with freezing level up to 1500m, moderate SW winds and ~20cm of snow.

Snowpack Summary

70cm of storm snow in the last 5 days, 15cm in the last 24hrs at 1900m, accompanied by moderate S'ly winds. Expect to find wind slab along ridge lines and lee features. Jan 16 surface hoar is down ~70cm, Jan 4 down ~90cm and Dec 15 down ~1m+ making for a complex sandwich of weak layers.

Avalanche Summary

The natural avalanche cycle has ended with only a couple avalanches east of the pass in the highway corridor occurring yesterday morning. The recent cycle had slides running full path to the bottom of runnout.

Confidence

Due to the number of field observations

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.