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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 31st, 2014–Jan 1st, 2015

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Glacier.

http://www.pc.gc.ca/apps/links/goto_e.asp?destination=http://www.facebook.com/MRGnationalparks/posts/608542575941919The Special Public Avalanche Warning has been extended. While the clues of instability are becoming less obvious, the potential for triggering large avalanches remains. Continue to be conservative in terrain selection and dig down to test the layers.

Weather Forecast

Expect increasing cloud and slightly inverted temps today. Valley bottom temps may rise to -12'C, while alpine temps may rise to -8'C with moderate southerly winds. Thursday will become cloudy with a warming trend, a high of -4'C and possible flurries. Flurries will continue on Friday with accumulations up to  8cm and W'ly winds gusting to strong.

Snowpack Summary

Cold temps are facetting the upper snow, while N'ly winds shifted to S'ly creating widespread windslabs. The Dec 17 surface hoar layer is down ~50-70cm and on top of a thick rain crust up to 2100m. This layer is widespread and highly reactive in many areas. The Dec 9 surface hoar is down ~ 70-90cm but is more spotty in distribution.

Avalanche Summary

There continue to be daily reports of rider triggered avalanches failing on the Dec17 surface hoar. Many have been remotely triggered, sometimes triggering slopes overhead. Yesterday, skiers triggered small slabs descending from Lookout Col, and Monday skiers triggered a size 2 ascending Youngs Peak. The 1m deep windslab was 150m wide and ran 300m.

Confidence

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.