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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Nov 16th, 2015–Nov 17th, 2015

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

Glacier.

New snow needs time to stabilize. Human triggering of avalanches remains likely as we head into another storm cycle.

Weather Forecast

A brief period of high pressure subsides this afternoon as a storm front tracks into the region. Moderate SW winds will build to strong at ridge top with a daytime hight of -4. Precipitation will begin late this afternoon bringing up to 20cm of snow by tuesday morning. Tuesday morning brings 40mm of precipitation and freezing levels up to 1400m.

Snowpack Summary

80cm of recent storm snow remains unconsolidated in sheltered areas. The November 11 surface hoar layer is present above 1800m with localized distribution. Wind slabs have developed on lee features from strong S-SW winds. Rain was observed to 1650m yesterday. A strong overnight refreeze has created a crust at lower elevations.

Avalanche Summary

Morning precipitation and warmer temperatures contributed to a natural avalanche cycle yesterday. Several avalanches from steep terrain were observed in the highway corridor, running up to size 2.5 with moist debris terminating halfway through their run-out zones.

Confidence

Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.