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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 21st, 2016–Jan 22nd, 2016

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

Glacier.

A warm and windy storm will arrive today. Avalanche danger will increase through the day as snow and wind add to the load over a persistent weak layer.

Weather Forecast

A weak "pineapple express" will arrive today. Today expect flurries, alpine temps of -3 and moderate S'ly winds. By Friday morning we expect up to 25cm of new snow. Friday will bring another 20cm of snow, freezing levels rising to 1700m and strong SW winds. On Sat expect flurries, with lowering freezing levels and gusty winds at ridgetop.

Snowpack Summary

A soft slab that sits on the January 4th interface, down ~40cm. This interface is variable; with the largest surface hoar below 1700m. It appears to be touchiest in our region on steep S-SW aspects where the surface hoar sits on a sun crust. On other aspects it sits on ~20cm of loose facets. Moderate S'ly winds yesterday formed pockets of windslab.

Avalanche Summary

A size 2.5 was accidentally triggered by skiers on Tuesday on a S aspect at 2500m. It was 40-50cm deep, 40m wide and ran 200m. Only 3 size 1.5 natural avalanches were observed yesterday, but on Tuesday numerous size 2 natural avalanches occurred from all aspects and ran onto the avalanche fans. Sluffing continues to occur when skiing steep slopes.

Confidence

Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.