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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 25th, 2019–Dec 26th, 2019

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

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Though becoming less likely, it is still possible to trigger a deep and wide avalanche where a thick slab rests over weak, older snow near the ground. Places with a shallow snowpack, and steep slopes that face the north half of the compass are the most concerning. 

Discussion

Since the 21st, the snowpack at the Washington Pass weather station has settled down from 62" to  48" deep. It has been a number of days now since the big event increased our snowpack depth from 23" to 62" deep in less than 48 hours. That whopping load of snow caused a widespread, large avalanche cycle between the 20th and 21st. Large slides were observed to have run in Silver Star Creek, Delancey Ridge, on a northwest aspect of Silver Star Mountain, and a northeast aspect of Hinkhouse peak. Some of these were "wall to wall" with very wide crowns.

On the 21st, observers watched a natural avalanche run at noon on a north aspect of Peak 6460ft near Silver Star Creek.

On the 22nd, an observer near Vasiliki Ridge reported multiple collapses, starting as low as 4,900ft on a weak layer buried in late November that covered areas as wide as 30 feet.

On the 23rd, observers reported no signs of instability during their travels on slopes from west to northeast aspects near the Hwy 20 hairpin. 

The pack is substantially deeper at the top of Washington Pass than further east towards Vasiliki Ridge. Yes, the likelihood of triggering slides on weak layers near the ground are slowly tapering off, but they may still be possible. Persistent slabs bring uncertainty, but we do know that they are more likely further east in the zone where the snowpack is more shallow. 

Snowpack Discussion

New Regional Synopsis coming soon. We update the Regional Synopsis every Thursday at 6 pm.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.