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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 5th, 2019–Dec 6th, 2019

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Cariboos.

Avalanche danger will be highest late in the day as new snow accumulates.

Confidence

No Rating - Uncertainty is due to the timing of the incoming weather system.

Weather Forecast

Thursday night: Cloudy with scattered flurries, trace to 5 cm. Alpine temperature -10 C, south-southwest wind 10-25 km/hr.

Friday: Snow, 10-20 cm. Alpine temperature -2 C, southwest wind 20-45 km/hr.

Saturday: More snow, 10-15 cm. Alpine temperature -10 C, east-northeast wind 20-35 km/hr.

Sunday: Sunny with cloudy periods. Alpine temperature -13 C, north wind 15-30 km/hr.

Avalanche Summary

There have only been a handful of snowpack and weather observations from this area. Natural storm slab avalanches to size 1.5 were observed in the region on Wednesday. Reports indicate less reactivity in the new snow early this week compared to a more reactive storm slab in the North Columbia region. More snow will accumulate in the Cariboos Friday into Saturday, which may increase the reactivity in the snowpack.

Snowpack Summary

Storm snow totals reached 20-40 cm early this week along with moderate westerly winds. The new snow covered a faceted upper snowpack and previously wind-affected surfaces, and surface hoar in sheltered areas around treeline and below. 

Down 35-60 cm, a layer of surface hoar (feathery crystals) may be found in sheltered areas around treeline. In these areas old, stubborn wind slabs may still be reactive where they overly the weak surface hoar on a crust.

A variety of crusts from late October are buried deeper in the snowpack.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.