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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 30th, 2025–Jan 31st, 2025

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Little Yoho.

Finally a change to the weather. After a dry January (56 cm total at Bosworth), the pattern has shifted and we expect 20-30 cm of new snow and strong winds through Saturday. Avalanche danger may rise quickly as the bond between new and old snow is poor. Small avalanches may run further than expected, even running-out below the treeline.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

No new slab avalanches were observed or reported on Thursday, but the storm was starting and visibility was limited. Our field team reported a lot of loose dry snow (spindrift) blowing around in the cliff and numerous dry loose sluffs starting to run.

Snowpack Summary

15-30 cm of new snow and strong winds will create storm and wind slabs that bond poorly to the underlying snow. Natural avalanches should be expected. The layer being buried on Jan 30 is a mix of crust, surface hoar and facets - none of which will bond well to the new snow. We expect avalanches to begin failing early in the storm with minimal accumulation. Friday and Saturday will be good days to avoid avalanche terrain and evaluate the changes to the snowpack.

Weather Summary

The weather pattern has changed significantly (finally), and there's now a strong onshore flow of moist Pacific air colliding with cold Arctic air. This combination will produce snow. We expect 10-15 cm through the day on Friday. Temperatures will be steady around -12 and winds will be strong from the northwest. The storm ends on Saturday with 25-30 cm total expected, and -25 arrives on Sunday night.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Storm slab size and sensitivity to triggering will likely increase through the day.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Dry

Loose Dry avalanches are the release of dry unconsolidated snow and typically occur within layers of soft snow near the surface of the snowpack. These avalanches start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-dry avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs.